I'm sure lots of people predicted this situation correctly. I'm actually amazed how close my prediction was so far. And I'm sure most of the people didn't expect this wouldn't change their vote anyway. But we are only talking about a margin of a couple of percentage points here to change the outcome of the vote. But what's done is done, no changing it now. Would just be interesting to know how people would have voted in 2 years time.
It's to the everlasting shame of the Remain campaign that Michael Dougan wasn't put in charge of it. That video encapsulates every single argument for remaining in the EU and expresses each point with greater clarity than I've heard from anyone else. Thanks for sharing that, TSS, but it has made the thought of the UK trying to negotiate any kind of trade agreement with anyone else thoroughly depressing. The prospect of any UK exporter having to overcome different sets of regulatory powers with every single country we trade with is appalling, and I can see no good whatsoever in the years to come. Especially as the overwhelming conclusion of the largest civil service research exercise ever undertaken was that there was absolutely no rhyme or reason why we should want to leave the EU.
I'm assuming that people are not lemmings with a vote and choose to Disney over a cliff. Actually, there is plenty of data out there acknowledging how people voted and why. Incidentally, Professor Dougan has become something of a celebrity academic since his pre-EU vote lecture was put on Youtube. Whilst retrieving the previous video I came across successive videos. This one was from October 2016 when speaking and taking questions at the SOAS London University: When taking questions Professor Dougan takes his expert hat off and speaks as an informed citizen.
Here's an interesting chart: Leavers and Remainers asked what they want from Brexit: Whether people are remainers or leavers, the thing they feel most strongly about is that they want free trade. The four people at the head of the Tory party who are demanding Brexageddon-Max and telling us the WTC rules will be just dandy are not really reflecting anyone's desires. Full article at: http://www.economist.com/node/21719529 - worth a read as it contains more about questions regarding trade-offs. Oh, and one more chart from the same source: Wonder what'll happen over the next couple of years as the negotiations progress? please log in to view this image http://www.economist.com/news/brita...bulging-contentious-agenda-two-year-countdown Vin
Some good news for those who believe Steve Bannon was/is an evil mastermind using Donald Trump as a puppet. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-39508351
A shame, but impossible as he is a neutral Government advisor on UK and EU law. But I certainly understand the sentiment. Right up to the last few days prior to the EU vote I, perhaps like many people, was unclear on the issues being raised by the smoke and mirrors. The Internet came to the info rescue, as it often does, and after wading through seemingly hours of BS from politicians, I caught some twerp from the Leave campaign shouting 'don't believe the experts'. So that's what I did. I looked up expert opinion only on the net. And there was plenty of informed, unbiased [as it can be] free advice. DTLW, as he usually does, beat me to posting up Professor Dougan's initial video, and I thought that would be enough. Game over. He is an example of an expert central to the EU exit question. He should know his stuff. But there were others. I could plaster this Politics thread with old videos of experts in their field who advised the UK not to leave the EU, at the time. Somewhere along the line there has been a major shift to the political right wing to the point that the working class have tugged their forelocks and overnight potentially waived away all of 40 years of hard won benefits, rights and responsibilities. Most of them won through the EU. I hesitate to identify a true catalyst, which brought it to the surface, but I suspect it might have been the West's attitude to Al Qaeda and ISS, amongst other terrorist groups. I think Brexit [I loathe that word] is merely a consequence of the movement that was sparked.
Great analysis SS, some might say Angela Merkel's decision to admit refugees from Syria swung the Referendum result. Then we had a PM and Chancellor and nobody knew which way they swung on the issue until the campaign started, and then it was very half-hearted. Since both were looked upon with derision, (it may be why the North East in large swathes decided to vote Leave) we had the outcome we had.
Obviously there were several circumstantial tumblers falling into place to make the EU exit vote happen. I mean, twat that Cameron will always be remembered as, for not making a constitutional changing vote a two-thirds majority requirement, but I don't think anyone really thought the unthinkable might happen. He also could have made it a requirement for Parliament to have the last say, but even the EU rules don't require that, so by dint of some incredible circumstances, on top of major fears, one or two arguably genuine, but others which were largely invented by the Leave campaign, we've thrown ourselves over the cliff. And talking of cliffs, I wonder about the future for Gibraltar and other EU countries where there are migrants with UK passports. It doesn't look at all clear at the moment.
Europe will be dead and buried in 10 years time. Too many countries that bring nothing to the table, it's only Germany that are holding the whole thing together
feelings have nothing to do with it, the whole union looks set to fall apart if the Germans get cold feet about the amount of money they pump into Europe. they have an aging population with a very low birth rate for the last 30years, they will struggle to pay these upcoming pensioners
We may end up with the climate of the Sahara desert even without a nuclear holocaust, but there will be some survivors.
Russia have started their clampdown on religious extremists, including raids on Jehovah's Witnesses churches for some reason
With Reckless rejoining the Conservatives, and vast numbers of other UKIPPERS rejoining the party they once left, surely it is time the UK Conservative Party renamed themselves as UKIPConservatives as they have longed since abandoned the right to be called Conservatives, a term which would be applicable for a centre-right party that is able to identify with the whole European project as well as the values shared by mainstream European Conservative parties, (the EPP grouping in the EU Parliament) .
Depressing that an internal spat in the party I used to support brought us to this. Nothing at all to do with public opinion. Vin
But that's the thing. The Germans won't get cold feet. They are a founder member of European CM. There is barely a whisper on Germany of wanting to remove themselves from the EU. Of course, anything can happen in 10 years but I don't see your scenario at all. The EU will generally stay together on the basis that countries together are far stronger than the same ones apart. Something the UK seems to realise in one instance, yet doesn't in another.
Anything that stops the godbothering sodding twots knocking on my door is fine with me. Takes a good hour out of my day every time they do it. Vin
