She's the only one who has got near Airlie Beach and Let's Dance who have beat useful geldings very easily. Airlie Beach is rated 143 and there was nothing between them in their race. Let's Dance is four pounds higher and was only two and a half lenghts ahead of her. Asthuria is 138 and Shattered Love looked like getting the upper hand when she fell. That would put her at something like 142. That would put her ahead of itsafreebie (rated 141 after last years Neptune) and behind Yanworth (rated 154 after last years Neptune). Obviously this doesn't include the differential between the Irish and British scales and excludes the potential for improvement.
Tiny, eentsy weeny stakes each way Lucky 15 on the following: 2.10 Our Kaempfer 2.50 Hargam 4.10 Sausalito Sunrise 4.50 Dreamcatching That will do nicely.
Shattered Love (40/1 ap) Alpha Des Obeaux (8/1 ap) Automated 14/1 _______ Cantlow (8/1 ap) Divin Bere 5/1 West Coast Time16/1 Also I got an email from William Hill saying they would be 4/1 on Cantlow and 9/2 on Bacardys from half eight tomorrow morning.
The Neptune is a much better renewal than last season and the best novice hurdle at this festival by a distance. Numerous good prospects in the race, Neon Wolf is one of them but he has beaten absolutely nothing and should be at least 5/1 in this field, Elgin hated the ground at Haydock and was beaten half the track in the Supreme yesterday anyway, the 3rd from that race will be lucky to hit 130. Messire Des Obeaux, Keeper Hill and Willoughby Court have the best english form and plenty of potential, and there a couple with strong Irish form in the context of this season, Bacardys, Shattered Love has form with Lets Dance who might be Mullins best novice, and Brelade has been catching my eye all season, also horses like Kemboy, De Dollar Man and Burbank are also decent types who havent been running in the best races. Ive backed Brelade 33/1 e/w, Keeper Hill 22/1, and Messire Des Obeaux 12/1 Could have backed another 2 or 3 to be honest as the value on so many in this field is excellent due to the favourite taking up what I think is a ridiculous amount of the market at under 2/1, not saying Neon Wolf is a no hoper, but anyone taking the price tomorrow is, whatever happens.
2:50 Cheltenham - Automated e/w (Good a chance as any in this as-usual wild-looking handicap; e/w at the readily available 14/1). Best of luck everyone!
Backed Fdas last night e/w at 28's but can't see Divin Bere been beaten. Also like Mr Miyagi but have Tombstone @ 10's before the price went. In the bumper will stick with Western Ryder / Cause Toujours. Can't back anything in the RSA but might go with the Sandra Hughes horse even if it looks a heavy ground horse
Pint of carling at the track yesterday £5...was £4.20/30 last year. Guinness over a fiver a pint! I guess we have the over paid footballers and reality tv stars antics from last year to thank for the price hikes . Tis tad annoying....Small bottles of water were handed out on exiting which I have no problem with.... Back again on Friday...time to pick out bets for todays races..
Shattered Love Might Bite / Heron Heights ew Taquin Du Seuil - Taquin 13lbs lower than chase mark, loves the track and wasnt raised for his comeback run behind Ballyoptic which was eye catching to say the least. Garde La Victoire w/o Fav Usuel Smurfer Poker Play Western Ryder
Keeping it simple today. 2:10 Alpha Des Obeaux 2:50 Hawk High (EW) 4:50 Divin Bere The only horse I have an emotional pull towards is Diable De Sivola as it won me money at Uttoxeter but that was in a relatively poor field and it was a much shorter trip - can't see it keeping up today.
It's where the traIner withdraws a runner when he thinks the horse isn't right to run. the horse can't run for something like a week after. If they get a vets cert they can run after.
1 Neon Wolf nap 2 Whisper 3 River Frost 4 Douvan 5 Cantlow 5 Project Bluebird 6 Western Ryder Another mixed bag
I would be quite interested in God's own e/w at 12/1 but I can't get on for beans anymore and my local shops - Hills and Ladcrooks - are 1/5 the odds e/w, the bastards. Will probably have a few shekels on Mighty Bite in the RSA.
