The handicapper has got it right with Thistlecrack. His run in the Cotswold Chase, rated 171, is better form than his King George win and pays a huge tribute to the ill-fated Many Clouds. Nothing in Ireland has run to within half a stone of that form this season. Native River now officially 168 and for me is the only danger to Thistlecrack in the field. Much as I love Thistlecrack I think Native River wins this as he is the more thorough stayer and more economical jumper.
Watching the Cotswold again I think Thistlecrack stayed no problem, was a proper test and both horses stayed on strongly up the hill, miles clear of the previous years winner. Many Clouds might have run close to a career best and ultimately it was his jumping experience which won the race, not superior stamina, he gained on Thsitlecrack all the way round and it told in the end. Thistlecrack only looked like a non stayer because of his pronounced energy distribution, hes a similar type to Faugheen in that department, they are not full blown bridle horses like Harchibald, but they dont always have as much energy left off the bridle as it looks like they might because they use more on the snaff, compared to a horse with a more even distribution like Don Cossack for example, Don Poli would be the other end of the spectrum. His style probably isnt suited to the Gold Cup but its hard to quantify what staying is sometimes at the top level, Brigadier Gerard won the King George but did he stay? horses clearly are better suited to certain trips, 3 miles seems to be ideal for Thistlecrack but hes going to be able to stretch another 3f against the vast majority of horses and win so does he stay? You would expect with natural progression that his jumping would be better for the last experience, you also expect him to be fitter as this is his Gold Cup, the last race was Many Clouds Gold Cup. It will take another top performance to beat him imo and you have to ask who is capable of it? I wont be surprised if he is ridden slightly more aggressively than last time to make use of his speed a bit earlier, not many will be able to go with him at that stage. I agree with Oddy, said it at the time, I think his last run was a better performance than the King George, and if he puts in a decent round I think the only horse capable of beating him is Native River who looks to be peaking and is a much more natural Gold Cup horse. Was quite surprised with the manner of his win last time, showing hes not just an out and out plodder. Can say the same for him, it will take a big performance to beat Native River and all things considered and at the prices, I think hes the one to be on.
Simple theory if the ground has the word good in it- Thistlecrack wins if it doesn't Native River wins but would love to see Cue Card and will probably have a small wager on him on the day
No chance in the gold cup! The 4m novice form is 10X stronger than the RSA of last year and he has about a good few pounds from his last run to even make in roads agaisnt the top 4/5 in the market off level weights
Everyone said that about Lord Windermere. I know novice chasers can struggle the season after a great campaign but I think he will relish the spring ground and cause an upset and twisters is a master at getting em ready.
Saphir De Rheu goes here according to Andy Stewart. Interesting move, he seems to have got his jumping back, confidence booster yesterday and does have a bit of class about him. 66/1 wouldn't be the worst bet in the world.
Anyone think its interesting tea for two goes for gold instead of today's betbright chase? Didn't finish too far behind cue card and could have finished in front of him that day easily...66/1 is quite a price and to me looks like he has big improvement in him. I guess its whether he takes to Cheltenham.
