IMO, we need to win one of the next two away games (Cardiff & Wigan) and hopefully draw the other before the home games against Forest and Newcastle where we need 4 points as well. Consistency (ie. roughly 2 points per match) is the key now that we have some momentum and the input of Wildschut and Dijks should help if we are to achieve that. By the end of those 4 games we should have a good idea where we stand. EDIT: It doesn't help our cause that Huddersfield are beating Brighton 3-1 at half-time. They are certainly the surprise team this year.
Excellent post Rick and IMO, Huddersfield were the best team I've seen at CR this season - I'm not sure that Wagner will still be the manager there next season!!
I hate to piss on your Strawberrys, but all the teams currently in the play off places are on just as good a run as us over the last 2 games and all the teams above us are on a much better run over the last 10 games. If we're in our current position or higher at the end of the seasons then i think we'll be in a better position than our performance so far this season deserve.
i agree, even getting into the playoffs now is a feat in itself, us and Preston have the hardest climb out of the top 11, it may only be 3 points but every team above us has to lose at least two games more than us by the end of the season (at current goal scoring rates), we need to win nearly every game IMO, more than 2 or 3 losses and i cant see us doing it, not being negative but its going to be hard. None of the teams above us are giving anything atm, most in better form than us so there wont be any charity our way im sure. Nothing has changed for me regarding the manager, hes got till the end of the season now and depending who we get in as CEO replacement and our position will hinge on wether he should keep his job. I will let the stats and league position decide it, no emotional attachment as its our clubs future at stake, something the board should consider..
I'm not saying it'll be easy, but I'd say a win and a draw more than the teams ahead of us over the 18 games left. Derby go to Newcastle this week-end, Barnsley play Preston and Fulham play at Birmingham. SW beat Wigan 1-0, having only managed 5 shots, only one of which was on target. Hardly convincing, IMO, against a bottom 3 side. Much will depend on what our new signings inject into our performances, especially away, but that's what football is all about.
We can only hope Rick, Wedsnesday's last night win being the perfect example, the last month or so we have been getting results and playing our best football for a while, but we have hardly moved a place if anything we are getting further away from the playoffs, there are plenty of games left but to expect all the teams 4 places above us to go on bad runs which also allows us to falter is a big ask, we need to go on win streak now and hold these small climbs, or rely on them getting a lot of draws. Odds seem stacked against ATM, no room for any losses imo. **Update - after todays result back to where we were yesterday but the most important things is nearly every result went our way! if anything we talked this up, i dont mind swallowing my pride if only to be proven wrong **
Yes Rick and I'm sure many others are starting to 'switch sides', as at long last AN does seem to have got the players realising that they need to battle for their wins, nor just turn up and expect to win. I'm still in the 'out' camp, but I've booked a holiday for late April rather than May, in case we're involved in the 'play-offs!!!'
Our record against teams in the top half is still ****, we need to keep beating the bottom half and winning the 6 pointers. Easier said than done, but if you can't feel a bit more positive after the last 5 games then, maybe you never will! COYY Bah!
If our form guide currently matches the team in P1, then happy days and AN and the team should be rightly pleased. What i'm interested to understand is what the board saw in AN during the peak of the down turn beyond the picture that the fans had. What was he doing that inspired them to push on with him when everything indicated that it was all going to poo. I can't believe it was a money issue to let him go.
Football's a strange game and in the last 3 home games, there appears to have been a different urgency in the team and we seem to be at long last getting more than one player in the box when we're attacking (just hope that one of them isn't Naismith!!!). I'm still not convinced in him, as he seems so intransigent in his tactics with only a lone striker (though he did actually have 2 on the pitch for the last 10 minutes yesterday ) and I would still like to see more of our youff at least on the bench. As has been said, if we beat Wigan on Tuesday, then we move into the top 6 and I've arranged my holiday so that I'm around for the play-offs and who knows, we could find ourselves back at Wembley!!!
Speaking for myself, I never got to the other side of the fence because I was never convinced that AN was the root of our problems. For me, it had more to do with complacency and bad decision-making on the part of players. The four sending-offs hurt us badly and the losses sapped confidence. I think there were players who wanted out for an immediate return to the PL and for that reason (and to balance the books) we were right to let Olsson and Brady leave. On yesterday's performance their replacements look very promising indeed, especially Dijks, who was my MotM for the way he suddenly made our left flank much more solid, dominating opposition players in a way Olsson never did. Wildschut put in a committed performance, but his role requires much more integration with other players and that will take some time to develop properly. Time will tell, but for me the signs look far more promising.
I'd say that difference in 'urgency' goes back 6 games, with the New Year bringing a new urgency as well as new bite and determination, which IMO, has been driven by the leadership of Martin, Howson and Naismith. Last week Jerome commended Naismith for the way he urged others to get into the box to create more chances and though it's true that he didn't take his 3 chances on that occasion (none of which were sitters), I feel that he's an important part of the renaissance going on. We missed him yesterday. I still don't understand the accusation of tactical intransigence on AN's part. For me, he's developed a very flexible and mobile 4-2-3-1 formation which can morph into a 4-2-1-3 when attacking and then switch back to a 4-4-1-1 when defending. Not only that, but the attacking players are free to move around to confuse the opposition as when Jacob pops up on the left at times and Wes pops up on the right. The 2 strikers were on the pitch for 15 minutes at the end, which worked quite well without going into the rigidity of a 4-4-2. As for the subs, 3 of the 6 outfield players were 23, 21 and 19 which IMO, was a reasonable representation of youffs. I'm on holiday in March during the international break, because I don't want to miss any of the run in.
Good comments Rick and some valid points in your posts. I agree that part of the dismal run of defeats was in part due to some players' attitudes, but IMO, part of that was due to AN's team selection, as he would invariably play Brady, when I feel he would have been better having him as a sub. We'll have to agree to disagree re some of Naismith's misses last week, as my seat is just behind the River End goal and with a bit more composure, he could have had 2 goals in the 2nd half at least!!! Yes, the sendings off (some of which I felt were very harsh) hurt us in each of the games and let's hope that little phase is past and we move on to the run in. I'm only away for the away game against Leeds. Edit - I see Brighton 'snatched a draw from the jaws of defeat' this afternoon!!!!
Your comments are good JMF, and you certainly see more matches than I do. My impression is that Brady is a wholehearted player but that has been less in evidence this year than last year in the PL. IMO he plays WL, WB and LB equally well and uses that range of talents to good effect by tracking back well when up front and going forward well when at LB. Whether his heart has been in it this year is another question. That he needed replacing is evidenced by the fact that we paid £7m for Wildschut. Similar could be said about Olsson, who I suspect signed a year and a half contract on the basis that he could move on if a good offer came in. IMO it did and he did. I was much heartened by Dijks' performance at Cardiff and feel that we could well have strengthened that position for the rest of the season. As for Naismith, he has 4 goals in 13 league starts and 6 sub appearances and 2 goals in 3 cup appearances, all against PL teams. That's not bad to my mind for a midfield player, so perhaps I'm inclined to forgive his misses against Brum. What he also has is total commitment and a sense of leadership which is critical if we are to kick on now. It's interesting how many of the sides we're competing against are now picking up red cards and also that we've picked up 5 points on Brighton in the last 2 matches. Football can be a funny game for sure, but it's also a long slog over a whole season.
IMO, Brady hasn't been performing at his best for NCFC this season and I know I wasn't alone in not being sorry to see him go. Olsson really wanted to be back in the PL though I'm not convinced that Swansea will be next season. One report I've read said that Dijks almost got MotM and formed an excellent partnership with Klose. Naismith has been a revelation since the game against Derby and long may it continue and as you say, his influence could be pivotal as you say in the remaining 15 (18 games????).
Looking at AN's starting 11 tonight, is he at last beginning to change things slightly. Pleased to see that Hoolahan wasn't even on the bench and good to see the Murphy twins both involved.
