Not sure i understand the point about Faugheen not making it and the correction of PM's price as a result. They'll all be brought in if the 5/4 favourite doesn't make the track on the day. You won't get 3/1 Yanworth or 20/1 The New One either. It doesn't mean PM's form suddenly improves ten pounds.
The Irish Champion Hurdle from 3 years ago - the 4th placed Jezki went on to win the Champion Hurdle 6 weeks later. You can't always extrapolate form Bob, even at this level
I mean I think PM is currently over-priced because I am convinced Faugheen won't show up and I am convinced the novice chasers won't show up so PM has Yanworth to beat on the book as I can't see anything else getting into it. If you win the Ryanair and Irish Champion Hurdles you are no mug.
You could be right but the form of Christmas Hurdle could very easily be worse with Chitibello only being beaten five lenghts and The New One has done it no favours in how he ran at Haydock. Ultimately the best horses are either running over fences this year or haven't been seen in over a year.
Same tactics used by Rock On Ruby to beat Hurricane Fly in the 2012 Champion Hurdle. If you read the interview with de Bromhead they have learnt a lot about how to ride Petit Mouchoir - that he is a relentless galloper who may not have lots of gears but thrives on a strong pace and takes plenty of passing. In the Supreme he was held up and ridden for a turn of foot and never landed a blow against horses with more gears. He was very keen over Christmas but yesterday was IMHO more a show of controlled power, cranking it up from a long way out and drawing the sting of the others. OK, with the hill to climb at Cheltenham you'd perhaps not go quite so hard but this type of horse does win Champion Hurdles.
Firstly, you can't take PM's one length beating of Footpad as literal based on the completely different rides the two horses were given. Footpad was hugely flattered by the proximity come the line, I think we all know that. PM's form is below what it would usually take to win a Champion Hurdle but this one potentially looks a very mediocre event if Faugheen/Yorkhill don't run in it, and he has a better chance than most of the other contenders left most of which are either very exposed or horses who want further.
Completely agree about extrapolating form Oddy but even on that point Jezki had a running style ideally suited to Cheltenham. He was just getting taken off his feet in Ireland against the Fly. PM is the opposite isn't he? Doalittle - The New One - one of my least favourite horses of all time so i would agree his form is massively questionable (i've be on here for years doing just that!) but that question is factored into his price whereas PM is being priced up like he's proven everything, which is simply not the case. Now, if PM was 12/1 i'd probably back it myself but his price is a disaster waiting to happen. Given this years race is so open because they're all either exposed, unproven or grade 2 at best, why would an unproven 6/1 shot with a vulnerable running style appeal?
I'm not bothered about Footpad's proximity i.e. Footpad's 145 ish so PM is 146 etc etc etc because i don't believe that is his mark (maybe i've not explained that properly) but the fact PM died up the finish is the biggest worry surely when you're taking 6/1.
But consider how he was basically softened up by NC for most of the way who is a strong stayer and he run the absolute legs off him, he was surely entitled to tire towards the finish and the last fence blunder probably didn't help there either. You ride the horse to win the race and the track your racing on, I've no doubts they'll ride him with a bit more restraint at Cheltenham (and I don't think it's that much stiffer a track anyway to be honest as the Old Course is very tight). The time he put in was pretty impressive, 6 seconds ahead of the Supreme fav, I wouldn't knock him it wasn't like he won a freebie from the front. He's been the most impressive 2 mile hurdler we've seen this season.
I get that Petit Mouchoirs price is a little bit skinny but he has won the two best grade one's for Champion Hurdlers in Ireland. I think he has a chance of winning a CH without Faugheen, whereas with the new one I think placing is the best possible scenario.
That time yesterday was unbelievable by PM. He seemed very settled to me during the race anyway. He's not a speed horse, he's a relentless galloper who doesn't have an immediate turn of foot so needs to be prominent to draw the sting from his rivals. It's an average looking CH and as such, PM has as good a chance as any in it right now.
Anyway, we're really over analysing this lads it's a bog standard CH and any one of 5 are in with a chance. It's all about what happens on race day. It could be a inventive ride or a mistake that seals the deal. As soft a race it may be, it's intriguing the masses no end.
the champion hurdle is always the race that gets the most discussion, even when its a **** renewal like this year
I liked Petit Mouchoir a lot more before yesterday to be honest. The times are utterly irrelevant in jump racing.
Horse gets outbattled, outjumped, outstayed and beaten = 'Festival chances improve'... Horse wins = 'preferred chances beforehand'... Couldn't make this ****e up
I wasnt the only 1, Paddy Power 9/2 out to 6/1, betfair 5/1 to 13/2 have to ask how is he still 6/1? should be a crazy price all things considered but the reality is he is Petit Mouchoir and thats why hes 6/1
One bookmaker, very much against the grain with general shortening across the board. Thistlecrack 10/11 pre race was out to as big as 5/2, 2/1 generally now but chances enhanced says you Definitely was only you in this case
thats why I am one of the top judges in Europe though, if everyone had my data interpretation ability then I wouldnt stand out from the crowd
Yeah true, after all it was you told us at the start Annie Power was all hype, ('ridiculous ****ing hype' maybe?!) only realistic chance of Festival success was Mares etc etc. A special gift you are
I don't think I've ever read so much drivel in all my life. I look forward to another easy victory in the Cheltenham tipping contest if this is what I'm up against
