Can you be 85% fit and beating these? It's hard to win Champ Hurdles when you are not fully ready, surely? His reappearance last year was probably 10lb or more below his best? No doubt he's the best if he's fit and retains the ability. Big question marks at this stage
I mean 85% of his best, I dont mean 85% fit, Mullins will have him fit enough if he gets a clear run with him till then, I dont doubt that. Big if tho with all the recent problems he had.
I was thinking this today when I first heard. It would be a practical move in my view. Horse is in no rush for fences imo and could give this a right bash if he turned up.
The Champion Hurdle is usually a race i bet quite heavily in, but not sure il be getting to heavily involved this year. Willie Mullins might well have got horses to win at Cheltenham off long lay offs before, but Faugheens circumstances are different to say Quevega who won from a long lay off. Faugheen has been off the track through injury, it wasn't the plan to keep him fresh for Cheltenham like it was with Quevega. I'm still not buying that Faugheen can just turn up, knowhere near his best and still win. If he runs to 85% of his best, then he will get stuffed. Let's not forget he only won a length the year he actually won it, when he was a 7 year old in the best form of his career. Take 15% off that performance and he's well beaten, and finishes down the field. Yet we think at 9 he can turn up below par and still win? Faugheen for me will need to be at the top of his game, and run very close to his very best to win
but his nickname is 'faugheen the machine', thats got to be worth something his rating has always been too high in my opinion but he has Yanworth and Petit Mouchoir to beat, Yanworth wants 3 miles and Petit Mouchoir usually gets found out when it matters 85% of the best of faugheen beats them easily, thats why hes still 5/4 with some despite a horrendous preparation and looking odds against to even turn up
Well Yanworth was a fairly convincing G1 winner over 2 miles in his last outing. Yes he looked like further would suit, but he still won well, and that was on a much sharper track at Kempton. If he gets a strong gallop in the CH then i think he is capable of running to a fairly high level. Petit Mouchoir is a much improved horse this season, and is progressing all the time. I think he's proved that in his last 2 runs, showing his superiority over Nichols Canyon, a horse who has beaten Faugheen when Faugheen was below his best. That defeat to NC proves that Faugheen can't just turn up and win any race, he needs to be on top form to win. And as far as Faugheen being a machine, this is a horse who was whipped all the way to the line to beat a closing Arctic Fire a length If you want to see what an actual machine winning the Champion Hurdle looks like then I suggest you watch this. Istabraq would have made Faugheen 'the machine' look like a cart horse
Maybe but the one I like isn't entered. Would be interesting if they supplemented him (if that's an option)
Riccis comments today seemed pretty positive but if he didn't have a prep race you would have to be against him. The NC defeat tells you he needs a prep run and has been commented alot before how he carries a lot of condition.
He has won fresh several times prior to that 1 defeat to NC though. If you think about it, given the protective nature they have of this animal, they are no way going to run him unless he is 100% ready to rock and roll.
If Faugheen isn't going to make March then send him to the Gold Cup at Ascot. His only weakness is an occasional contempt for the hurdles. Take them out of the way and he'd surely be competitive in that. And his inferior stable mate beat the current AOB jolly in the Irish St Leger.
A point to point winner winning an Ascot GC...now that I would like to see. The purists would be crying into their G & T's for a while if that happened.
If he was mine I'd want to give the horse the chance to prove his greatness. He's 9 now and hasn't run for a year. If he missed the NH festivals I'd be telling Willie to give him a stalls trial.
Nicky Henderson showed with My Tent Or Yours last year that a 9YO can come back off a long injury break and run one hell of a race in a Champion Hurdle. My concern with Faugheen would be how big he was in the Morgiana last year and how below-par he then ran. I wonder if he is taking more getting fit these days than when he was younger? If he lines up without a prior run at Cheltenham I'd only consider backing him if he looked lean and fit in the parade ring. The market has a surreal look to it at the moment (these are Paddy Power prices): Faugheen 5/4 Altior (!!) 2/1 Yanworth 3/1 Yorkhill 7/2 Petit Mouchoir 6/1 VVM 8/1 12/1 Bar Bet 365 go: Faugheen 5/4 Yanworth 3/1 Yorkhill 11/4 Min (!!), Petit Mouchoir 4/1 VVM 6/1 10/1 Bar I find the prices offered for VVM (who just scraped home over 2 miles on Saturday and clearly needs further) and the novices Yorkhill (2 slightly dodgy wins over fences this season, never raced in open company over hurdles), Min and Altior ridiculous compared to Petit Mouchoir. If Faugheen doesn't make it and the novice chasers don't line up I can see PM going off 2/1 or lower on the day.
PM beat Footpad a length. That's not Champion Hurdle form. I'd back The New One over PM at the current prices. You know he'll run to 160 and that will probably be enough to place in this years race. Petit Mouchoir's form is dreadful. Absolutely shocking for a 6/1 chance in the big one.
He beat Footpad by 15 lengths prior to yesterday on similar ground. The fast time and pace set yesterday and the fact he made a mistake at the last allowed Footpad to close from the back but never was Footpad threatening to go by. If PM can control the fractions just a tiny bit better then there's no reason he won't play a hand in March.
They went hammer and tongs for a lap and a bit at Leopardstown yesterday. That race was run to suit a closer. I would definitely say Footpad ran well above his mark of 147 just judging by the times, but Footpads finishing position was simply a consequence of NC and PM going off so hard. Petit Mouchoir has beaten a proven grade one horse twice in Nichols Canyon and his run yesterday was all about beating him. I can't see Yanworth or The New One getting near him if he doesn't go too hard in the Champion Hurdle.
Has anyone seen any sectionals from the two races? Re PM, I'm watching a racehorse that can't really settle (horrible trait for 2 miles at Cheltenham), has run once at Cheltenham and flopped, will have to completely alter the way he runs to get up the hill, has beaten almost nothing of grade one, Champion Hurdle quality apart from Nichols Canyon who i think is running about 10 lbs below his form of the last two years. However, you have to question if NC is actually a top grade one 2 miler. I'm beginning to think he is a long way off it. Regarding Nichols Canyon's ability (or what he retains), there's no shame in being smashed by Faugheen and to a slightly lesser extent, Annie Power, but to lose to Rawnaq? If you look back at his novice campaign, what's he actually beaten? Very little of top table standard albeit he is a multi grade one winner. Looking past Nichols Canyon, Footpad is a 145-150 horse that will get an over blown rating because of the name of yesterdays race. IG was awful. PM was looking to run a good race in the Fighting Fifth but came down at the business end. Even if he'd won, what's he beaten? Irving? Hidden Cyclone. You have to be smashing them by 10 lengths to be a contender in March. For all those questions marks about what PM's actually run against you have to back him at 6/1 to win what is traditionally the most competitive Grade One of the season over 2miles. Absolutely terrible bet. Reminds me of when a lot of people we getting very excited about The New One for the Champion Hurdle after his Neptune. He was found out and PM will be as well.
