Transfer Rumours Saints January Transfer Window Rumour Thread

While I love me some predictive stats models, I'm a little hesitant about using Expected Goals as more than a very broad estimate:

http://deadspin.com/why-soccers-most-popular-advanced-stat-kind-of-sucks-1685563075

The biggest underlying problem is that more data is needed...specifically, data of the defense, because the position of the defenders when these shots take place is crucial, and that information is as yet missing.

The same has happened in the NBA in recent times; modeling quality of shot changed drastically a few years back with the introduction of SportVU, which is a system that tracks the exact positioning of every player and the ball throughout games, which has led to a bit of a revolution in the manner in which the game is played. The eureka moment was in seeing the degree to which simply having a defender nearby mattered in terms of likelihood that a shot would go in, and consequently an overhaul of the way teams moved the ball...you were, in many cases, better off having some random taking a wide-open shot rather than having your superstar take one with a defender's hand raised in his face. Which may seem fairly non-controversial, but it went against decades of thinking that it was the star's role to take all of the big shots (notwithstanding Michael Jordan passing up a look and instead passing to a wide-open Steve Kerr for a title-winning shot), and has led to situations like last year's playoffs, where Kevin Durant -- one of the best players in the league -- yelled at a young backup for passing the ball to Durant in a crucial moment rather than taking the "good" shot. Defenders are now prized not for their ability to block shots, but the number of shots that they affect by their presence, introducing a greater demand for rangy sorts who can cover enough ground to prevent a shot from being uncontested.

And that, I think, is where we fit in; because of our slow buildup play, we take a lot of shots with an added degree of difficulty owing to the proximity of defenders that current metrics simply don't have the information to adequately model. Combine that with our worse-than-average innate finishing ability and you're going to get a team whose shots produce goals at a lower rate.

 

I agree. Birmingham's 2010-11 season comes to mind....
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2013/mar/27/birmingham-city-wembley-relegation

 

As you yourself pointed out over the last 30 games we've been great on average. Over the last 4, we've quite possibly got the worst attack in the Premier League. I mean, Hull scored three this weekend and beat us by 2, who says we will turn out better over the course of the season? we only have past form to go on but quite a lot has changed. New Manager, new attacking line-up, big jump in the number of games, introduction of new tactics, disruption in the team morale (fonte rumours). Personally I think we need to double down on the change, move some players on and bring in some that Puel can work with.

Despite all this, I'm pretty relaxed. I'm not expecting us to be relegated but I'm not above discussing the possibility if there is one.

 

I have run out of fingers and toes to count how many games I have seen the ball being crossed into our opponents pen area and no one being there.

Seriously, people moan about how few we score, but it isn't like we don't create changes at all.

I remember one game Bertrand crossed the ball in about 6 times and they were all good crosses. Yet no one was even near the box.

 

I am surprised that some on here are marking Saints down for relegation. It is clear that Sunderland, Swansea , Palace and Leicester are all pretty woeful and even if Hull and West Ham reverse their fortunes, I can't see us getting relegated albeit I envisage us finishing in the bottom half of the table and probably below Bournemouth. That is more likely but 9-10th is a best bet. I fully expect the relegation battle to be between the four first teams I named but it will be fascinating to see if there is more transfer activity at the Stadium of Light than at St. Mary's. It is surprising that it has taken so long for there to be discenting voices against the Puel apologists who tend to dominate this board.

For what it is worth, does anyone think that a lack of a signing and , in particular, a forward in the transfer window could be construed as the team's faith in Puel? I see us surviving this season but I cannot envisage him being at the club come the summer. Regardless of league position, I feel the club will be worried about a fall in season ticket sales because the football played is erratic at best and tedious at worst. I am not sure that the team won't be overhauled in the summer either.

 

Sorry Ian...

But 'the Puel apologists who dominate this board' is worthy of both a and a

 

You expect us to finish in the bottom half of the table in 9-10th? At the moment Betfair (proven to show true percentage chance of something happen by tons of peer-reviewed research) has us with a 70% chance of being top ten.

I bet £5 there is more transfer activity at Sunderland the January than at St Mary's. Two reasons - one, they HAVE to do it. Two, we don't tend to buy the got-you-over-a-barrel and we don't need him overpriced players available in January.

"Puel apologists"? Optimists? Realists? People with a long-term view? People prepared to give a new manager time?

I'll be astounded if the team is overhauled. Given that the single most consistent cry from fans is "don't sell anyone" that's not going to create any positive feelings. Also, I don't think style of football is what's worrying people as much as a recent dip in form. If we were creating as many chances as we currently do and they were going in, no-one would care.

Vin

 

Ian, I wish you would take your "Puel apologists" lines and go away

Yes, that's polite under my new treaty with Schad. I won't ever abuse people here, but you are pushing me close. Everyone can have their opinion, but keep yours to discussing not name calling.

 

And a "**** off" but I refrained.

 

I actually deleted my comment after deciding not to post it.

Then I changed my mind thought it needed to be said

 

. Stop picking on Ian. No need for it.

His opinion is after all personal to him. And by the looks of it, him alone.

 

Touché

 

Btw, is a Puel Apologist the French version of an Anthropologist? I was confused as Claude doesn't seem to be giving us much, according to some studies...

 

Well played sir

 

Puel has been brought in to teach and improve our squad and in particular the youngsters. That takes time and Les is on record that he will be given that. Lets judge him in a couple of seasons time not after 20+ matches.

 

Puel Apologist; (n) an individual of a patient nature; someone prepared to give a Puel time to evolve; lacking petulance; takes radio commentaries with pinch of salt; Francophile.

I looked it up.

 

Thank you TBD. I wanted to say but couldn't get the ****ing words out. We don't need superfluous stats to know the ****ing problem & before someone says, ok, expand, all you need to do is read above.

 

Tactics or bad forward play? I believe it's the former.

 

Ok Gary, let's say it's poor tactics. What do you want to happen; Puel to be sacked? It's half way through his first season and a very congested season at that.

 

No absolutely not FLT. I'm 100% in the "give him a full season" camp. I'm just seriously worried we don't have the right AM's nor front line personnel to play Puel's way. Hope I'm wrong but I don't think the board will support him this window either. Actually "support him" is wrong because we don't really know what he's saying / asking, more I suppose, support the fans view ...... and what the **** do we know! I think the board screwed up pre-season not re-investing sufficiently (quality wise). Yep, maybe a season of consolidation after our 6 years of up, up, up, so expected, at some point for sure but if they'd done a bit more proactive investment earlier maybe RK wouldn't have left, Fonte would be so pissed off, etc. Yes, all hypothetical & it's in the past anyway. So where does that leave us ....... IMO we really need to invest per above. I've always been "in Les we trust" even when the doubters were on here in hordes but for the 1st time I'm worried. I won't mention the dreaded R word but we definitely need to be aware, otherwise we could certainly end up one of those stats the media like to throw up every season regarding a freefall club. COYS.