Regression to the mean. I entirely agree with you. Although the whimsical part of me thinks that it's a fair description of what happens to this board when we lose
And the conclusion is ............... sit & wait ? Not being smart but stats are great only if they tell you something & you can conclude & act upon.
It's easy. We must sign every player on a ten year contract. (Yes, tongue is in cheek) Or, fans need to be a little more broad minded and accept that no one can force a player to stay. A contract runs out eventually. Too many people think it's easy. Too many people think a problem is about one or two things, when in almost all walks of life, it is about lots of things and all those lots of things falling into place at the right time. Now there's a word for it but it's slipped my mind ( ) Now, I've spent most my working career being told I'm a lucky beggar and my response (as you know Vin) has always been, "I'd rather be lucky than good." Right now I am more interested in Saints being lucky than good.
I believe we were offered some luck at the beginning of the season, but Les tried to knock the price down.
I'm sort of in the middle with this one - I know we're having shots on goal, and I know we're being unlucky on occasion (lucky general vs good general worries me slightly). I know these things because i've watched the games and used my eyes, and these statistics show it. Saying that though, I also agree with what Schad is saying - a large part of the problem (in my opinion) is how slowly we're getting the ball to the place where we get a shot off. By the time someone gives it a whack, there's usually a whole team of Burnleys standing there waiting to block it. The standout recent opposite to that was the Liverpool game where we broke incisively and with pace. Okay, we only scored the one goal, but that really was a case of misfortune (and some very average finishing).
I can't tell you how much I disagree with what you've said. As an example, I used to play golf with a pal. After a bad round he almost always bought a new bit of kit. He even once spent £600 on a new set of clubs after a horrible one (I remember vividly because he paid for them on my credit card). The next round he'd improve. Being a stats bore if I had a terrible round I always kept the kit I had (my clubs were previous cast-offs of his after a previous fit). Guess what? The next round I'd improve. If (and it's a big if) I'm right then "do nothing" is a sound, perfectly valid conclusion and action. Vin
I agree that we have been unlucky. Like FLT, one of my mantras in life is that I would rather be lucky than good There are a few ways of looking at that: 1. We create the chances so we are unlucky not to convert them 2. We make our own luck (so rather than giving ourselves 1 chance a game, we give ourselves 20 chances) 3. We are crap in front of goal. I think we are a combination of all three. We create, we come in front of keepers that have a worldy, we really cannot finish.
In expected goals vs real goals we are the the most underperforming in the league. (I read it but trying to find a good source). I don't really know whether that is bad luck or bad finishing, but I think general slowness is a part and I think we take too many long shots. Yesterday IMO our best created chance was when Long was played through on the right of the penalty area, but Keane got back and tackled him. I'm sure he would have scored that last year.
You misinterpreted. I was asking your conclusion & sit & wait it is then. Not that I agree with that because I don't think we've got the front line personnel to play the way CP's wants.
If anyone thinks we're immune to relegation on the form we are in then theyre deluded. I was responding to a claim we won't go down. Yes we will if things are not changed. I could stick my head in the sand and still see that. I honestly don't understand it. But if jrod doesn't come into some form and or we don't sign some fresh talent we are in for a very squeaky bum.
One word wrong NZ... "we COULD go" not we will ... nobody knows that yet. Ps. do you think some of us are sticking our heads in the sand?
Agree with those that say we created chances yesterday. Tadic had a couple of chances in the first half and JWP had a relatively free header 5 or 10 yards out, then in the second half van Dijk headed straight at the keeper from a corner and Heaton made a very good double save from Rodriguez and Sims right at the death. Sometimes we don't create much but yesterday wasn't one of those times. I don't think it's just bad luck though. There have been some good points made about the type of chances we create and we aren't just having a poor run of 4 or 5 games in front of goal; we've struggled all season.
It can be quite dangerous having the points on the board. We are slipping towards the bottom, but at a seemingly complacent rate. It does concern me.
There's barely been a week passed by since the middlesboro game that I don't thank the gods for Boufal's strike. We would be in the **** were it not for that. Really hope we can put Leicester to bed next weekend, one win & things will seem loads better......its just gathering that win.
