The Promotion Race (Updated after Ipswich)

As things tighten up at the top with 16-17 fixtures left, I thought it was time for a Promotion thread featuring the top 10 teams each week.

The next two fixtures (Sat & Tues):

1 Newcastle(29-62): Wolves (a), Norwich (a)
2 Brighton(29-61): Burton (h), Ipswich (h)
3 Reading(30-56): Barnsley (h), Brentford (h)
4 Huddersfield(29-55): QPR (a), Rotherham (a)
5 Leeds(30-54): Cardiff (h), Bristol City (h)
6 Sheff Wed(29-49): Birmingham (h), Blackburn (h)
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7 Norwich(30-47): Forest (h), Newcastle (h)
8 Derby(29-46): Bristol City (h), Cardiff (h)
9 Barnsley(30-45): Reading (a), Villa (a)
10 Fulham(29-43): Wigan (h), Forest (h)

After the draw at Wigan we need a win against Forest and at least a point against Newcastle and then hope others slip up. Reading vs. Barnsley is the only top 10 head to head on Saturday and our game with Newcastle the only head to head on Tuesday.

 

I do hope we stay relevant to this thread for the rest of the season!

I guess Barnsley-Reading is the only fixture this week where a rival absolutely has to drop points, so an important week to win. Whether we can sustain some decent form for the rest of the season is going to be the million dollar question, another month of poor results would take us out of the hunt completely.

 

Consistency has to be the key for the rest of the season. With 3 wins on the trot and 13 points from our last 6 matches (which has us tied with Newcastle at the top of the form table) we need to carry that forward now that we are in touch again. Wigan will be another battle but at last we've shown that we're up to playing those type of games and that has to continue. IMO Dijks is an improvement on Olsson defensively and a lot will depend on how Wildschut rises to the occasion against his old club. If Pritchard takes over from Wes as expected, he'll need to pull the strings and keep the ball moving against a packed defense. Cardiff was a start with reversing our away form and we need another to project us into the top six and hopefully stay there.

 

Absolutely DH!!!
Yes, if we can average close to 2 points per game for the next 15 games, then I fully expect us to be in the top 6 on May 7th and so extend our season a little at least.

Though I'm optimistic of a return to Wembley!!!!

 

You know how much I like a bit of optimism JMF!

 

I think we all like a bit now and then!

 

Well maybe, just maybe right now
One or both of the two at the top,
Are showing slightly weary signs
That their resilience is beginning to drop,
The gap between them and the rest
Is certainly narrowing a bit,
And although they´re still safely clear
It´s toughest up there where they sit,
So while there is life there is hope
But for any who play the top two,
A draw will not be quite enough
To suggest they can force their way through.


...and we do have a really hellish April to look forward to.

 

April's a toughy but they're exactly the 6 pointer games that we'll need to leap frog those above us. Effectively giving us some control. Our record against the top teams isn't stellar but can't help but feel we're a different team in 2017.

 

Can´t disagree with any of that Hairy, but the 6 pointer part, applies equally as well, to them. We do seem a better unit at the moment, but I see top 3 - 6 as being our ultimate destination (if we´re lucky). The points gap up to the top two, although mathematically far from insurmountable, still looks realistically too big an ask.

 

As I said, I'd love to see us go back to Wembley and IF we're in the top 6 and IF we avoid Huddersfield in the play-offs, then I see no reason why we can't get there!!!

 

I wouldn´t entirely put it past Huddersfield to nick one of the top two places yet , they are after all, only 6 and 7 points behind - quite a different, and more possible proposition, to the one we face.

 

Morning Dave, yes, bit of that tonight, wouldn´t go amiss.

 

The perception of our record against top teams may be a bit misleading. We lost against Newcastle narrowly and Brighton badly but both were away and we will now play them at home. The narrow home losses to Huddersfield and Leeds were more disappointing but we were struggling to score and with defending at that time. We lost to Derby and Birmingham away but then beat them both comfortably at CR in this new and more determined run of form. There will be ups and downs for all of the teams involved and I'll be surprised if some of those currently in the top 6 don't have a wobble or two as the pressure mounts. Brighton have only taken one point from their last two matches, for example, as we picked up 5 points on them. It's still a long shot for the top places and I see the likelihood as being a play-off place as if we win tonight we would be in the same 6-7 points range of all 4 teams above us. The key now is consistency, winning as many of the 6-pointers as we can and taking advantage of any slip-ups by others.

 

The top six does look possible but I still am unconvinced we have what it takes/the right manager. Time will tell and the new additions if they display the right fight may be the difference maker over the more appathetic Olsson and Brady.
Wigan away and Forest at home are certainly key battles if we are to make the playoffs, win them both and I'll start to believe. Any slither of automatic promotion hope lives and dies with the Newcastle game. Beat them having taken a minimum of 4 from the next 2 and even auto won't look impossible. Lots of big ifs there!

Bah!

 

Much will depend on how Wildschut and Dijks settle in for the rest of the season. We've already seen signs of their total commitment and Dijk's stellar debut was very encouraging indeed, considering he's never played in England before. Whoscored rank Wildschut as the top dribbler in the Championship this season and his ability to take on and beat opposing players could be a key difference for the rest of the season. Jarvis coming back from injury will also give us a new option we haven't had all season.

 

As I said in an earlier thread, they're the bet and most organised team that I've seen at CR this season.

 

True words JMF - the best drilled, best organised and dare I say the fittest team to play here all season. I would not bet against them stealing a march on Brighton and pipping them for second.

 

The one caution about Huddersfield, Reading and Leeds is that they don't have much experience of promotion challenges and the pressure may tell on them in the later stages. Brighton and SW both failed in the play-offs last year and that could also bring pressure, but these things are hard to predict.

 

LATEST UPDATE:
The next two fixtures (Sat & Tues):

1 Newcastle(29-62): Wolves (a), Norwich (a)
2 Brighton(29-61): Burton (h), Ipswich (h)
3 Reading(30-56): Barnsley (h), Brentford (h)
4 Huddersfield(29-55): QPR (a), Rotherham (a)
5 Leeds(30-54): Cardiff (h), Bristol City (h)
6 Sheff Wed(29-49): Birmingham (h), Blackburn (h)
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7 Norwich(30-47): Forest (h), Newcastle (h)
8 Derby(29-46): Bristol City (h), Cardiff (h)
9 Barnsley(30-45): Reading (a), Villa (a)
10 Fulham(29-43): Wigan (h), Forest (h)

After the draw at Wigan we need a win against Forest and at least a point against Newcastle and then hope others slip up. Reading vs. Barnsley is the only top 10 head to head on Saturday and our game with Newcastle the only head to head on Tuesday.