The Premier League Thread

https://talksport.com/football/expe...er-league-matchweek-two-games-should-have?p=9
Comparison of the real results in matchweek 2 and the likely results using data. We should have been marginally ahead of West Ham and we were.

 

If you rounded those results appropriately and had bet on all the outcomes it would be interesting what the outcome would be

Looks like more were right than not. Not scores but actually win, lose and draw

But I only read it quickly

 

The problem is that take the penalties out and we are around 0.5-1.9. Not that good against 10 men.

 

Amidst all the cheering of Saturday I was still left with the underlying feeling that we carved out one goal from open play. We can't play a defence with Jose in it every week.

 

Although it was certainly a possibility that Maya would have scored from the excellent cross by JWP if Zabaleta hadn't hauled him to the ground. He would have only had Hart to beat, after all.

 

That's true. And Maya is something of a goal-getter.

 

Penalties are awarded because you have created a situation where the opposition have to stop you by illegal means. I prefer goals from open play, but a penalty is still something that's been earned. And they count....which is the important thing.

 

Agree. I don't understand why people talk like penalties do not count

 

Of course they count. But they don't leave the amount of confidence or satisfaction that a goal from open play does. See the difference now.?

 

I do see the difference, but there are penalties which are random accidents, and penalties which are the result of goal scoring opportunities being deliberately denied. Davis's was just about the former, as he had lost control anyway, and Fonte was being an idiot, but Maya's was clearly the latter. The only thing wrong with that one was Zabaleta not being sent off for doing it, which would have probably been the case if it wasn't already into added time.

 

That would be my assessment too. The first penalty was a bit of a gift, to be honest.

 

See what you're saying chilcs, but Zabaleta really is a bit silly giving it away. Maya is only c. 20% to score from there (0.2 xG) with his head if he doesn't foul him (because headers are far harder to score than shots), but because he fouls him that increases the chances to c. 75% from the spot. So that one mistake cost them 0.55 expected goals, and as it turns out the match. Saints really didn't play well despite winning.

Flip side before anyone beats me down is that we did play well v Swansea and not get the result. In truth we're on the number of points we deserve, we were just a little unlucky one game and lucky in the other.

 

And that is what Mauricio said after the Swansea game....don't moan because in another game it will be in your favour. He must be clairvoyant.

 

I thought WH were a little lucky. We hit the bar twice with cracking shots & they had a top class poacher to put in a rebound twice.

 

Tbf, Redmond's was a bit of a piledriver, which unfortunately deflected off Jose and made it go anywhere. Gabbi's was a measured drive for 35 yards or so that was about a football diameter from perfection. as it bounced off the top of the bar. A ball width lower and it bounces in off the bottom of the bar, with the keeper floundering and we all start shouting 'we are not worthy.! '

 

Fonte really wanted an 'og' to his name.

 

What a goal.

 

Goal of the month contender perhaps

 

Well, that was a bit good.

 

And.....it's 1-1.