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Relegation Watch

Discussion in 'Norwich City' started by Cruyff's Turn, Dec 17, 2012.

  1. Cruyff's Turn

    Cruyff's Turn Well-Known Member

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    As it's yuletide a young (well early codgerhood) man's thoughts turn to relegation.It's traditional ever since Good King Stephen,whoever he might be,went in search of firewood,(a most un-kingly like thing to do it has to be said) for us to speculate on who will take the drop.Fortunately there isn't a green and yellow hat in the ring to the despair of Lawro,but here are my thoughts.You may wish to add your own.

    Current 20th:Reading

    With Arsenal and Man City as their next two games you wont get very good odds on Reading not being bottom.In fact the best the bookies can offer for the drop is 2/9 on.Hard to see the bottom club at Xmas hoodoo being bucked here - CT prediction for May 20th 28points

    Current 19th:QPR

    'arry's arrival has breathed new life into the hoops,but a caveat here.Whilst six points from four provides a scenario for survival if maintained it is worth looking at where those points came from. Sunderland and Wigan away,both fellow relegation strugglers,Villa and Fulham at home.If 'arry is to maintain survival form he will need to repeat the feat against Newcastle,West Brom,Liverpool and Chelsea,a different and greater achievement.They need to manage 7:7:7 from their remaing games to reach thirty eight points.Bookies say 8/11 on for the drop - CT prediction 18th on 36 points.

    Current 18th:Wigan

    Young Bobby Brown Shoes has built a reputation as a survivor and turned down Liverpool to try it one more time.Of the bottom clubs from 18th upwards it's hard to see one with a worse squad,badly missing Moses and Rodellaga.Tough festive season Arsenal,Everton,Villa and United.The bookies offer 13/8 against the drop - CT prediction 19th 35 points.

    Current 17th:Southampton

    Saints have picked up of late and suffered from a run of early tough fixtures that left them in my view in a rather false position,now also a game in hand.No trouble scoring but conceded too easily.
    next four Sunderland,Fulham,Stoke and Arsenal.Odds for the drop are just against at 11/10 - CT prediction 16th 38 points

    Current 16th:Sunderland

    Sunderland seem capable of coming up with the odd decent win that should be enough to see them safe.O'Neill is a capable manager and their odds of 10/3 against show that the bookies at least have faith if the Mackems don't.Next four Saints,Ci£y,Spurs and Liverpool. -CT prediction 15th 40 points.

    Current 15th:Newcastle

    In my opinion not serious contenders in this.The Magpies will hit a patch of form and be away sometime soon.Odds of 10/1 against relegation.Next four QPR,United,Arsenal,Everton.- CT prediction 12th 48points.

    Current 14th:Villa

    Seem to have turned the corner under Lambert,terrific win at Anfield has lifted them up the table.Still only 4/1 for the drop but looking a better,more cohesive side now.Next four Chelsea,Spurs,Wigan,Swansea. -CT prediction 14th 42 points.

    Current 13th:Fulham

    Slipping down the table quickly and infamously lost to QPR! Listed at 20/1 against the drop which is,in my view generous.Next four Liverpool,Saints,Swans and Baggies which I think may yield sparse returns. - CT prediction 17th 37 points.

    Above 13th,who knows? One team may hit a bad run but I expect the bottom three to come from the eigt sides above.
     
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  2. ThaiCanary

    ThaiCanary Well-Known Member

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    Good post and I am finding it tough to call a nailed on relegation candidate other than perhaps Reading.

    QPR's fate will not be decided for a few more weeks yet perhaps and it is quite staggering that a team incapable of winning for the most part of the first half of the season can actually still be in with a shout of survival! Personally I don't think they will manage it but you never know who else is going to come unstuck for the rest of the season.

    Fulham, Newcastle & Sunderland are all mostly really poor or inconsistent at best which has helped to cast the seeds of doubt as to who is going to end up in the bottom three.

    Saints, although have picked up quite a number of points in recent weeks have a horrible run ahead of them, as they did at the start of the season and this could potentially be a huge set back to them but draws at home to some of the better teams may not be out their reach.

    Villa? Not sure yet. They have been pants until the last two weeks or so, maybe they will keep it going but maybe not.

    Wigan's lack of squad depth may well actually catch up with them this time.

    To stick my neck out today I would say Reading, QPR and possibly Wigan
     
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  3. Walsh.i.am

    Walsh.i.am Well-Known Member
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    Apart from Michu and our very own Tettey, I'd say the value for money buy of the summer was the £7m Lambert spent to prise Benteke away from Genk.

    He's been improving match by match since his arrival and was unplayable vs Liverpool on Saturday. No real surprise that Lambert has unearthed another relative unknown - without spending ludicrous dosh on him (this year's Jelavic?) as we have first-hand experience of his skills in that department. <ok>

    Villa will be mid-table. Reading, QPrcelona and Sunderland would be my bets for an away-day to the Portaloo next season at this stage. Well, as long as Mick pulls his finger out <laugh>
     
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  4. DHCanary

    DHCanary Very Well-Known Member
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    If Southampton have a bad run coming up though, I'm going to guess their run-in is pretty favourable?
     
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  5. King_of_Portman_Rd

    King_of_Portman_Rd Well-Known Member
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    Can't see Wigan getting relegated myself. I have a lot of respect for Martinez and I fancy he will do what he always does with them and keep them up by the skin of their teeth.
    Reading & QPR seem to be the nailed on sides for the drop so in essence it's a one place relegation battle between 5 or 6 teams, a battle that I can see Southampton losing (unfortunately)
     
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  6. ThaiCanary

    ThaiCanary Well-Known Member

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    It's fair logic <ok> Most of their away games will be against bottom half teams, games that perhaps could go either way but their home games look harder that than they had in the first half of the season, so again 1 point at home to the big boys while being an okay result might not be enough. They are certainly not out of the equation but by the end of January (bad looking month for them) they could well be where they are now and not making any progress up the table.
     
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  7. K E M P

    K E M P Well-Known Member

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    Am I the only one that thinks a good bet is QPR to avoid relegation?

    I wouldn't put it past Arry.
     
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  8. General Melchett

    General Melchett Well-Known Member

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    I reckon Reading, wigan and probably QPR. The probably really is due to the amount of money that they will probably throw at the transfer window. If Harry buy's well then I can see them escaping and if they do I can see Fulham saying bye bye - Whilst they have some undeniable quality, Is a relative luxury player like Berbatov the best player for a struggling outfit fighting for its prem survival?
     
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  9. ThaiCanary

    ThaiCanary Well-Known Member

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    6 points in the last 4 games is not bad but look at those teams they played - all of them having a very tough time of it themselves (expect Villa, and they were awful on the day). I can see them having a pretty good run in the next few weeks with games against other teams that appear to be out-of-sorts but in the new year they have what look like a long run of much harder games.

    Depends who they get in January I guess, but no, it is not impossible.
     
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  10. Yellows

    Yellows Member

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    Had 'Arry come in after January I doubt they would have stood much of a chance, but I agree with you that they could well escape relegation now. 'Arry has a chance to bring in new players in the transfer window, and time to make a difference mentally to those already there. He is, after all, a great man manager. My only worry for QPR is if he will have a big enough say in who they buy in January.
     
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  11. Norfolkbhoy

    Norfolkbhoy Well-Known Member

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    For me it's Reading, QPR and Wigan. I think Saints will score enough goals to keep them up. I also think that Sunderland could struggle and have to rely on there being three worse teams rather than staying up on merit. Of course a lot depends on what, if anything arises in the January transfer window. If QPR get some quality in then they will have a fighting chance.

    I'm hugely pleased that we are not featuring in this debate - 25 points amassed is a really good effort by CH and the team and should give us a platform for a mid-table finish and a nice big slice of the Sky cash next year.
     
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  12. canary-dave

    canary-dave Well-Known Member

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    Point of order CT - the good king was Wenceslas, on the FEAST of Stephen!

    Otherwise, very good post for debating! <ok>
     
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  13. canary_max

    canary_max Well-Known Member

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    long long way to go, plus there's the transfer window to take into account. Reading are not cast adrift - although they are looking odds on, look at their second half of the season last season. i think they will go, but it's not set in stone.

    someone often drops like a stone as well.

    i think we are looking good again - however a few dodgy results in the new year could get the nerves jangling for sure!
     
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  14. Superman wears Grant Holt pyjamas in bed

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    i would have agreed with you before the weekend but having watched them against us i would say they are in more trouble this year than ever before. i know they have a few injuries at the back and the loss of caldwell is a big one, but they were toothless up front and didn't pass the ball with the smae speed and incision they did last season. i think they'll go down along with the current bottom two. qpr will put a run together at some stage but i think they've left themselves too much to do. its asking a lot to win 9 of their last 21 games having won 1 from 17 before it. reading are doomed, absolutely doomed. someone has stated they think they'll get 28 points... if they get 20 they'll have done well based on what i've seen so far. i'm very surprised by this - i really felt they'd have a great chance of staying up but they've been very disappointing. i think saints will be absolutely fine - they score goals and have match-winners and appear to have tightened up at the back. i can see one or maybe two of the teams currently in the upper echelons dropping, perhaps not like a stone but drifting towards the bottom six all the same. whether we are one of those i don't know - i would think it unlikely right now. we are nowhere near being one of the weakest teams in the division.
     
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  15. robbieBB

    robbieBB Well-Known Member

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    Fulham's owner isn't exactly a pauper, so if Jol says he needs to replace the two key players he lost to Spurs, maybe he will be given the cash. The January transfer window will be interesting; we will see who is seriously concerned about the abilities of their current 25. Both Wigan and Sunderland have said they are going to be buying. <ok>
     
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  16. Superman wears Grant Holt pyjamas in bed

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    i think fulham are the best team in the bottom half of the league as it stands... and yes, i know liverpool are also in the bottom half <ok>
     
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  17. Cruyff's Turn

    Cruyff's Turn Well-Known Member

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    Yes my Czech medieval history isn't good is it?
     
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  18. canary_max

    canary_max Well-Known Member

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    they really need to get a creative midfielder though in january, they are on a dire run now and this will be part of the reason.
     
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  19. Superman wears Grant Holt pyjamas in bed

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    they've just had a dip in form i think and they've missed ruiz. they aren't helped by their continuously awful away record but they have a good manager, good players and i'm sure they'll be absolutely fine.
     
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  20. canary_max

    canary_max Well-Known Member

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    agreed they will be fine, Ruiz is out for another month i believe. they lost murphy, dembele and dempsey in the summer so not a surprise they are struggling a bit in the middle with Baird and Sidwell (i've a colleague at work who is a season ticket holder at the cottage so get all the Fulham info)
     
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