Relegation Watch 2013/4

Less than four weeks to the opening games of the season now,so I thought that it might be a good time to take a look at the runners and riders.The bookies seem to have decided that Palace and Hull are the fall guys followed by Malkie's Taffs,then us and The Potters.

My view is that we can disregard The two Manchesters,the two Liverpool clubs and the three top Londoners.So from the remaining thirteen who will it be ? The bookies go like this:

Palace 4/7 On

Hull 14/19 On

Cardiff 15/7

Norwich 3/1

Stoke 10/3

Sunderland 11/2

Fulham 8/1

Villa 8/1

Swansea 8/1

Baggies 9/1

Southampton 10/1

West Ham 10/1

Newcastle 11/1

..........................................Discuss

 

A few odd ones. I'd have Fulham as more likely to go down for starters.

Definitely different this season to last as none of the promoted sides (except perhaps Cardiff) look to have the financial muscle to survive in the way West Ham and Southampton did. How clearly ourselves and Swansea didn't either when we survived, but it looks like a tougher ask to me this season. I guess it'll depend on whether any teams implode. Sunderland for example I could either see in a real relegation scrap, or comfortable in the top 10. With Di Canio I can't envisage a middle ground! Newcastle are undoubtedly another candidate for imploding.

 

The bookies tend to put the three that got promoted as the ones to go down every season. I think it's only happened once in the Premier League years...someone correct me. Of the three, I think Cardiff are the most likely to survive. We stand as much chance of another mid-table finish as the other established bunch.

 

I think, and it's very early to make predictions really, that Hull and Palace will struggle. Then it's harder to predict stoke could struggle, I really don't rate Hughes. Sunderland could see PDC cause trouble those are the two I'd pick out but generally could be any of about 8 teams.

 

I think that is broadly correct.To my mind the spread of odds is too wide.I would put the favourites at evens or slightly against.The bottom of that list 6/1 or 7/1.But once again the caveat applies :Odds represent the PERCEPTION of something happening,which may be different from the likelihood.

 

Palace without Zaha are a mid-table Championship side, easy pickings

 

How many people would have thought we'd survive our first season though? I agree I'm not convinced yet, and their signings thus far aren't particularly impressive, but there's still plenty of transfer window left.

 

We strengthened very well when we came up which I haven't seen palace do plus they only got into the playoffs on the final day, after a pretty average season. I'm not saying they can't stay up just it would require a massive battle and some other teams to have pretty poor seasons.
Reading had an average team last season and they won the league.

 

There is still quite a lot of rubbish in this Division, well certainly at the tail end of last season. Could be anyone from 10 really and I wouldn't be surprised if they went down.

 

Looking forward to your regular relegation updates for another season, CT.

(But I do hope we're not obsessing about it quite as much as the last third of last season)

 

Interesting that we are the favourite apart from the promoted teams again. I'm accused of being negative, yet even I think we have a good chance of staying up this season. It's just lazy thinking, especially since we have strengthened much more so far than a lot of the teams who finished below us.

 

Spot on. I think that Saints and Swans have strengthened and Sunderland have made a couiple of interesting signings but anything could happen there. I can see Stoke struggling under Hughes. We still need a couple more players brought in and ireckon we'll need to change the thread to mid table watch.

 

Barring any massive strides by others, there is absolutely no reason why we could not be comfortable this season and stay around the top 10 this year with the correct signings and correct approach.

One of the clubs will have bought a load of turkeys with the new money, happens virtually every year.

 

I think that was a reflection of the degree of interest in the bottom half.I'm not sure whether a constant 8th/9th/10th place would have been better for us. Fans of clubs like Swansea who kept clear of the melee might have felt uninvolved in anything top or bottom.

 

I would like a season of mid-table mediocrity, last year was a little bit too exciting at times. I would like a thread focusing on 8th place (the realistic top place for us to strive for) - I don't know if that would fly CT? I certainly hope that your thread for 2013 /14 will have little relevance for us this time around, but here's hoping.

 

I am really worried about this season as Mikey has yet to post a FACT about us facing impending doom

 

I'm feeling quite optimistic about the new season. The signings have been positive and I don't think we will be as bad (at times) as last season.

I don't think the promoted teams have strengthened that much yet (although there's still time) but I can see at least 2 of the promoted teams going straight back down again.

 

Over the past ten seasons the chances of a promoted team getting relegated in their first season is exactly 40% - 12 teams from 30 promoted.

 

That's actually a lot lower than I expected CT, so statistically, rather than a team surviving doing so against all odds, it's actually to be expected.

I guess when clubs come up they're up for the fight, scrap hard, etc, and everyone is working together. Other clubs often have internal divisions or have spent their way into financial problem, so that goes against them.

What would be interesting is the probability of all 3 surviving, as if each team are deemed independent, you'd expect the probability to be 6.4% if I've done my sums right. I suspect it's lower than that as I can't imagine 3 teams have been particularly badly run in the same season too frequently.

 

Certainly it's been better than that in the last ten because in the 2011/2 season us,Swans and QPR all survived.So that's 10%.How did you arrive at 6.4? I worked it out as 60% of 60% of 60% = 21.6% I think you used 40% but that was the risk of relegation not of survival.