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Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2017

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by Ron, Jun 2, 2017.

  1. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Kitasan Black nor Satono Diamond have ever run at Sha Tin, which is in Hong Kong. Maybe you are getting mixed up with Hanshin. And maybe you should just plead ignorance of racing in that part of the world if something as basic as that is beyond the scope of your knowledge.

    You would know that the Japanese Leger and Tenno Sho are among the biggest races in Japan, all the top middle distance horses run in them. Deep Impact and Orfevre both ran in the same races. Deep Impact actually held the 2 mile world record until Kitasan Black took a second off it this season, the race in which Satono Diamond finished 3rd.

    The Tenno Sho is two races, Spring and Autumn, Spring is over 2m and Autumn is over 1m2. The 2 mile race and 1m3 Takarazuka Kinen are the two major races for older horses in the first half of the season.

    The Tenno Sho Autumn is the first of 3 major events in the second half of the season, the other two being the 1m4.5 Arima Kinen, which Satono Diamond won last season, and the Japan Cup.

    They are not scared of stamina over there.
     
    #21
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  2. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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  3. stick

    stick Bumper King

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    As it is highly likely that the word soft will appear in the going description I reckon JACK HOBBS is worth a dabble at 20/1. Group 1 winner on soft ground over the trip.
    What do you experts know of his plan for the rest of the season?
     
    #23
  4. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Is it highly likely? Was a road last year at Chantilly. Dont think its been soft for the Arc since Treve won in 2013.
     
    #24
  5. stick

    stick Bumper King

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    Point taken but you should surely expect good to soft by Oct 1st huh
     
    #25
  6. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Not sure, would have to look through the history, would guess that its pretty much 50/50 over the years, its been very fast ground the last 3 years but the 2 before that was soft and heavy. Seems like either extreme is possible.
     
    #26
  7. stick

    stick Bumper King

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    If its the soft side of good would you rate his chances?
     
    #27
  8. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    At his best hed have a massive chance this year, his best form is a class above most in the field and it wasnt long ago he looked back to something like it in the Sheema Classic. But obviously its a risky proposition on whether he will turn up 100%, hes not been easy to train and it looks like they arent going to risk him on fast ground anymore so if its not soft you probably arent getting a run for your money. Suppose that risk is factored into the price.
     
    #28
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  9. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Enable has never run on anything softer than good so that would be a concern for her (ie the unknown factor)
     
    #29
  10. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Can barely hear the commentary for the crowd.

     
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  11. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Found this video of Satono Diamond, all his races at 2 and 3, Japanese commentary unfortunately. Despite losing the Guineas and Derby by a nose, his only 2 defeats until the 3rd in the Tenno Sho this season, he was voted Japan Champion 3yo in a landslide with 286 of 291 votes and only Arrogate and Almanzor were higher rated 3yo colts in the world last season. Hes a top class animal, been competing in much tougher races than the Arc will be this year imo, hes going to be bang there at the end on class alone.

     
    #31
  12. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

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    I am perfectly aware that Sha Tin is in Hong Kong. I have been to Happy Valley but there were no races at Sha Tin the ten days that I was working there.

    Clearly somebody at horseracingnation.com needs telling that the link hints on their website are wrong. On the 19th March 2017 race, the link hint says Sha Tin Hong Kong but when you follow the link it goes to a map of Hanshin racecourse, so apologies the location was wrong but the race was still a mile and 7/8ths. I do not follow Japanese racing at all except for when looking for Frankel’s progeny and the small handful of Japanese horses that come visiting Europe. You obviously bet on Japanese racing on a regular basis and are the undisputed European expert.

    I will be fascinated to hear your explanation of how Deep Impact held “the 2 mile world record” as the idea really is total horse****. There are no world records in a sport where all the courses have varying physical characteristics. The same reason that there is no world record for the marathon but there is for the 100 metres.
     
    #32
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  13. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

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    Sounds wonderful: a voting system to decide who is the best horse. Do Ant & Dec front that? How many votes does Simon Cowell get? <laugh>
     
    #33
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  14. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Wikipedia

    Deep Impact won over Admire Japan by two lengths in Kikuka Sho(Japanese St leger) on 23 October 2005, thereby becoming the first horse since Narita Brian 11 years earlier to complete the Japanese Triple crown. He also became the first unbeaten Japanese Triple crown winner since Symboli Rudolf 21 years earlier, but in his next race, Arima Kinen, Deep Impact was defeated by Heart's Cry to suffer his first loss in his racing career.

    In 2006 Deep Impact returned to the turf with an easy victory in the Hanshin Daishōten (Jpn-GII). Then he won the Tenno Sho (spring), beating the world record for a 3200 meter race in the time of (3'13"4), following this with a victory in the Takarazuka Kinen (G1 - 2200m).



    Kitasan Black breaks Deep Impact’s record time at Tenno-sho


    KYOTO – Kitasan Black became just the fourth horse to defend the spring Tenno-sho title, while breaking Deep Impact’s 11-year record time to win the Emperor’s Cup on Sunday.

    First choice Kitasan Black showed his class as reigning horse of the year on a sunny afternoon at Kyoto Racecourse, tearing through the 3,200 meters in 3 minutes, 12.5 seconds to shave 0.9 seconds off the previous record held by the legendary Deep Impact.

    The 5-year-old Kitasan Black won his second Grade 1 title of the season following the Osaka-hai on April 3, the newest G1 race on the Japan Racing Association calendar.

    Sunday’s victory was Kitasan Black’s fifth G1 win. Jockey Yutaka Take, who steered Deep Impact to the old record in 2006, won the spring Tenno-sho for a phenomenal eighth time.

    “I didn’t slow the pace because I thought if any horse could withstand it, it was him,” Take said. “I was confident he could hold on. It was a tough race for everyone.

    “I never thought it’d be broken,” Take said of Deep Impact’s record. “Kitasan Black broke it by a lot; it’s an outstanding time. He’s stronger than he was last season.”

    Taking second was fourth-pick Cheval Grand, 1¼ lengths out. Second favorite Satono Diamond, who beat Kitasan Black in last year’s Arima Kinen, was third.
     
    #34
  15. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

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    Astonishing – man posts information from Wikipedia, the most totally reliable and accurate source of all knowledge on the planet, to prove that there is such a thing as a “world record” in a horse race. <laugh>

    Perhaps it is the only “3200 meter” (sic) race on the planet, in which case it would be a world record. Otherwise it is a track record.

    On the Horseracing Federation International Classifications for 2016, Satono Diamond was rated 122 and his Derby conqueror Makahiki was rated 121. Where did Makahiki finish in the 2016 Arc? And which horse did he beat in the final strides of the Prix Niel?
     
    #35
  16. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Why are you finding it hard to comprehend that Kitasan Black holds the fastest 2 mile time in the world?

    If they were really that close, dont you think Makahiki would have got more votes for Champion 3yo? :emoticon-0136-giggl

    Somehow I dont think Makahiki ran to his best form in the Arc.
     
    #36
  17. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

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    FACT: there is no 2 mile world record in horseracing.
    FACT: Deep Impact recorded a time of 3:13.4 and Kitasan Black recorded a time of 3:12.5, a difference of 0.9 seconds.
    Satono Diamond did finish third in the race so that part of the statement is accurate.

    FACT: Deep Impact finished third in the Arc when heavily backed down to favouritism by Japanese race fans and subsequently failed the post race drugs test.

    I have no problem with Kitasan Black having run the fastest time over 2 miles (on a specific racecourse in the specific circumstances on the day) but it is NOT a world record and never will be except in your mind.

    Any system that is based on votes rather than actual facts in evidence is completely meaningless as it is susceptible to emotion and other human variable traits. If there were a public vote, the greatest steeplechaser ever is Red Rum or Desert Orchid.

    Makahiki scrambled home against a horse who was not considered good enough to contest the Arc in Midterm; and then ran abysmally in the Arc itself. So his journey to France was a waste of time. Perhaps the Japanese will win it this year but the statistical facts make it as likely that Enable will be the first Oaks winner to be victorious.
     
    #37
  18. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Fastest 2 mile time in the world but not a world record <confused>

    Starting to look like you have some sort of personal vendetta with clock confirmed 2 mile world champion Kitasan Black

    Every major horse racing nation votes on horse of the year awards and Japan is no different, how else is it supposed to be decided?

    Safe to say that Makahiki was under the tutelage of a noob who had no idea about producing one on Arc day, looked like a last minute decision to go to Europe with him rather than a 4 year masterplan with a trainer who knows exactly what it takes by now, as is the case with Satono Diamond.

    Lets not forget that Orfevre clearly had the ability to win an Arc just recently for Japan, mental issues cost him first time and then he bumped into a 3yo Treve.

    The bloodstock they have been buying over the last decade is really starting to improve their horses and they have a couple of top class sires including Deep Impact, its only a matter of time now.

    Logistically its difficult, but it looks like when they do it, its going to be Yasutoshi Ikee who does it due to the unique knowledge he has acquired after a few major attempts now.

    Its not important for how long people have been saying this is Japans year, what is it important is that I am now saying it, thats when you take notice.
     
    #38
  19. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    I'll never forget Orfevre, a truly talented horse who was a (likable) little **** <laugh>. I would have loved him to win an Arc; he certainly had the ability
     
    #39
  20. Archers Road

    Archers Road Urban Spaceman

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    please log in to view this image
     
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