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Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2017

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by Ron, Jun 2, 2017.

  1. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    What price Enable for the Arc? Can't see one but after that I'll take 66/1 if it's available
     
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  2. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Best price 20/1 and as low as 8s. 20/1 is excellent value given that she is still developing. loves the 12f, very game, and won the Oaks in a fast time in driving rain. She's a good'un.
     
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  3. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Highland Reel available at 33/1 (as low as 10/1). At those prices those 2 will do for me at this stage.
     
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  4. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    20s for Enable now disappeared. best price now 14/1 (WH and BV).
    upload_2017-6-2_18-48-41.png
     
    #4
  5. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Highland Reel still available at 33/1 but not for long I suspect

    upload_2017-6-2_18-50-7.png
     
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  6. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

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    Enable does not currently hold an entry for the Arc but I think Khalid Abdullah can afford to add her if he sees fit the week before the race.

    Initial entries for the Arc 2017 closed on May 10th at €7,200. There were 119 such entries (54 older horses, 65 three year olds). Supplementary entries are available on 27th September at €120,000. At present the first prize is €2,857,000 with second €1,143,000; third €571,500; fourth €285,500; and fifth €143,000.

    There are seven Japanese breds entered, five trained by Japanese trainers.

    The number of entries per owner:

    22 Coolmore (et al), Godolphin (et al)
    6 Wertheimer & Frere
    5 Al Shaqab Racing, S.A. Aga Khan
    3 Khalid Abdullah

    (et al = the various partnerships that are the same owners)

    The number of entries per trainer:

    20 Aidan O’Brien
    14 Andre Fabre
    7 John Gosden
    6 Andre de Royer-Dupre
    5 Saeed bin Suroor, Sir Michael Stoute
    4 Charlie Appleby, Freddie Head, Jean-Claude Rouget
    3 Criquette Head-Maarek

    Some of the notable entries:

    Highland Reel (Coronation Cup winner)
    Almanzor (last year’s champion three year old)
    Jack Hobbs
    Order Of St George
    Minding
    Seventh Heaven
    So Mi Dar
    Churchill
    (2000 Guineas winner)
    Cracksman (son of Frankel)
    Eminent (son of Frankel)
    Winter (1000 Guineas winner)
    Terrakova (Goldikova’s daughter)

    To see the full list of entries, go to the France Galop website fixture page: Toute les courses. Select October 1 in both date fields (marked De and À) and click Actualiser. Click the top result (CHANTILLY) and this will take you to QATAR PRIX DE L'ARC DE TRIOMPHE.
     
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  7. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

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    Events at Royal Ascot and elsewhere in recent weeks see the Arc market looking like this:

    6/1 Almanzor
    8/1 Brametot
    10/1 Enable
    12/1 Minding
    14/1 Kitasan Black, Highland Reel, Satono Diamond
    16/1 Waldgeist, Arrogate
    20/1 Wings Of Eagles, Cliffs Of Moher, Jack Hobbs, Idaho, Barney Roy, Makahiki, Dartmouth

    Amongst the bigger prices are So Mi Dar, Terrakova and Order Of St George at 33/1.
     
    #7
  8. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    I'm happy with my 2 above (ie Enable at 20/1 and Highland Reel at 33/1)
     
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  9. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Almaznor and Minding a class above but hardly had great preps so far. Brametot wont stay, Highland Reel shouldnt be good enough. Hard to knock Enable at this stage but she wouldnt be what I call an Arc type. Kitasan Black got turned over at 2/5 last night, wide trip all the way but still a bit disappointing, wouldnt rule him out in a year like this but looking like he wont run, and the winner of last night race Satono Crown would have a chance, he beat Highland Reel in Hong Kong but hes not even in the betting at this stage.

    Satono Diamond looks like the one from Japan who is really being targetted at the race, he was a nose second in the Derby, won the Leger and beat Kitasan Black in the Arima Kinen last season. Won his first start this year easy and ran a decent 3rd to Kitasan Black in the 2m Tenno Sho where Kitasan Black set a track record. He looks worth a bet at 14/1.
     
    #9
    Last edited: Jun 25, 2017
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  10. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Getting happier by the day

    upload_2017-7-15_22-7-31.png
     
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  11. Archers Road

    Archers Road Urban Spaceman

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    When was the last Oaks winner to double up in the Arc Ron? It may be a 3 yold filly's race, but a 3 yold Oaks filly?
     
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  12. bayernkenny

    bayernkenny Well-Known Member

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    Will be very interesting to see Enable run against older females in the Yorkshire Oaks! Cannot find my 'Arc' folder however from memory three year old fillies receive a very good weight pull; even over three year old colts none of which look exceptional this year.

    Almanzor not yet seen in 2017 and Minding out would suggest Enable a worthy favourite at the moment.
     
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  13. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Not in my time, as far as I know. But a few Derby winners from England have won it and normally the Derby winners are better than the Oaks winners. That isn't the case this year. French Oaks winners have won it (eg Treve, Zarkava).

    Just a stat AR. I don't even know how many Oaks winners ran in the Arc. A more important question is. "How many of the best 3yos in England won the Arc?" or How many of the best 3yos in Europe have won the Arc? At present she is rated the top 3yo in Europe. How many English Oaks winners have been rated the top 3yo in Europe at this stage?
     
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  14. Archers Road

    Archers Road Urban Spaceman

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    Derby winners have an excellent record in the race - Golden Horn, Workforce and Sea The Stars being the last three to win at Epsom and Longchamp. Obviousle WoE won't be adding to the tally.

    And for 3yo fillies, there's been Treve, Danedream and the truly exceptional Zarkava in recent years.

    Taghrooda and Snow Fairy are the only Oaks winners I can recall off the top of my head to go close at Longchamp in recent years. Both finished 3rd I believe. And both were beaten by 3yo fillies.

    I'm not sure what any of that means, but I certainly wouldn't try to put you off a bet on Enable. Especially given that her trainer is imo the best trainer of fillies in GB if not Europe.
     
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  15. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Thanks for that. Taghrooda was beaten by the 4yos Treve and Flintshire and Snow Fairy was a 4yo when beaten by Danedream.

    I see Enable will skip the all age clash against the colts at Ascot, in favour of the Yorkshire Oaks. A little disappointing. Interesting that Snow Fairy attempted this treble (English/Irish/Yorks Oaks) but finished second to Midday. If she wins the Yorks Oaks, we won't have learnt a great deal. If she doesn't I can't see her going to the Arc.
     
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  16. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

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    No Oaks winner has ever won the Arc (at any age). Most Oaks winners are retired at the end of their three year old career and I think that historically many have not contested the Arc as quite a few have gone for the St Leger, which is often only a couple of weeks before the Paris showpiece, or in recent years they have gone to the Breeders' Cup or Champions Day for ‘Fillies And Mares’ races.

    Looking at Oaks winners this century there have been six Champion 3 year old fillies: Kazzia (2002), Ouija Board (2004), Sariska (2009), Snow Fairy (2010), Taghrooda (2014) and Minding (2016).

    Of the seventeen fillies, Imagine (2001) never ran again after the Oaks, Kazzia (2002) missed the St Leger with a foot injury, Look Here (2008) was third in the St Leger and never won after the Oaks, Snow Fairy (2010) was fourth in the St Leger, Talent (2013) was second in the St Leger, Was (2012) never won after the Oaks and Qualify (2015) only ran once after the Oaks when sixth in the Irish Derby. In 2000, Love Divine ran fourth in the Prix Vermeille and then ran fourth in the Champion Stakes whilst in 2003 Casual Look was eighth in the Vermeille before going to race in America.

    Only three Oaks winners this century have contested the Arc: Ouija Board was runner-up in 2004, Taghrooda was third in 2014; and Snow Fairy was third in 2011 as a four year old. Only two other fillies have been to Paris on Arc weekend, with Alexandrova (2006) third and Light Shift (2007) unplaced in the Prix de l’Opera.

    Although history may be against Enable, I still think that on what we have seen to date she is a worthy ante post favourite for this year’s race at this stage.
     
    #16
  17. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Enable not the type of horse I am looking for in an Arc but in a weak year she has a chance.

    Cant wait until the race is back at Longchamp, Chantilly was an absolute disgrace last season, completely ruined the meeting with the pace and inside bias.

    Brametot is more my type for the race but not convinced he will stay and his form ties him in too closely with our bad lot.

    Really think this is the year for Japan with a top class 1m4 horse, wont get a better chance.
     
    #17
    Last edited: Jul 19, 2017
  18. Archers Road

    Archers Road Urban Spaceman

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    Japan and the Arc is a bit like Liverpool and the PL - next year is always their year.
     
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  19. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    This trainer of Satono Diamond was assistant to his father with Deep Impact and then trained Orfevre who threw the race away in 2012 then bumped into Treve a year later. The owner has Satono Crown who has already beaten Highland Reel and said "Satono Diamond is a name I was saving for a good horse", they bought this horse to win the Arc and his whole campaign this season is being geared for 1 run.

    Ulysses produced the best middle-distance performance of the season in last Saturday's Coral-Eclipse on Racing Post Ratings, earning 124 for his first Group 1 success. That was 5lb higher than Zarak was awarded for his victory in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud six days earlier.

    There will be another older horse on French shores from the middle of next month who will require serious consideration: Japan's sole challenger for the Arc, Satono Diamond, is already the equal of Ulysses in terms of his 124 RPR.

    More importantly, the son of Deep Impact has run to within 2lb of that figure on all but one of his last six starts, the sort of high level consistency that only Highland Reel can match among the older brigade.

    You could argue hes the best horse in the race this season if Almanzor doesnt make it and barring bad luck, hes going to be sitting on the race of his life. Ill be topping up at 14/1 for as long as I can.
     
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  20. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

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    Last year, the Japanese sent their Derby winner, Makahiki, a son of Deep Impact who had beaten Satono Diamond in Tokyo after finishing second in their equivalent of the 2000 Guineas at Nakayama.

    I was at Chantilly on Arc Trials day when Makahiki won the Prix Niel, by a neck from Midterm, who had tried to make all and was only caught in the shadow of the post. In the Arc itself, he never featured trailing in fourteenth of the sixteen runners.

    So far this year as far as I can find, Makahiki has run twice without success, finishing fourth to Kitasan Black last time over 10 furlongs at Sha Tin in Hong Kong.

    The latest race I can find for Satono Diamond was over 2 miles in the Tenno Sho at Kyoto on 30th April when he was third to Kitasan Black. The previous month he had won at Sha Tin over a mile and 7/8ths. He won the Japanese St Leger over the same trip last year. Of his last five races, only two have been at around twelve furlongs. They should be looking at the Melbourne Cup.
     
    #20

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