Off Topic Politics Thread

The Conservatives are an utter, utter disgraceful party having abandoned their principles of being a European centre-right party and adopting the more extreme policies of other right-wing parties around Europe.

 

I knew the change over from DLA to PIP would hurt a lot of disabled people, but this is heartless.
Ironic that the PI in PIP stands for Personal Independence, when so many are losing theirs as a direct result of assessments being carried out by non medical personnel, who really do not understand the full scope of a person's disability.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tory-cuts-seizing-800-vital-9907405

 

Now is the time for the Tories to go to the polls..
1. They would win with an increased majority.
2. The potential negative impact of Brexit has not yet kicked in.
3. Corbyn is still leader of the Labour, but for how much longer?
4. May would have a Mandate.
Luckily, it looks like Maggie May is not for turning. Things could look much different come 2020, but she doesn't look to have the vision.. I'll get my coat...

 

Unfortunately for the Tories, they are stuck with the 5 year Parliament implemented by Cameron and Clegg, and they wouldn't get the two-thirds majority needed to overturn it. Hoist by their own petards!

 

As Chico says they need to serve a full five years. Just over 3 to the next one. For "UKIP" (Conservatives in name only) to be ousted, something really dramatic will have to happen. If that something drastic did take place or were to unfold the only outcome would be a national Government because Labour are not going to turn things around that quickly. The way things are going, the left of centre parties really need to reform both policies and their names, in order to make any inroads into the mindset of considerable swathes of voters whose opinions have been shaped by the Express, Mail and the Sun, in veering sharply to the right over the past 10 years.

 

Not one centre-left politican or media outlet has homed in on the fact that the Conservatives have ceased to be a European centre-right political party. No one has really focused on the fact that their primary focus, Brexit, was shaped by UKIP, a party that empathises with the views of the very right wing AfD, the French NF and the Dutch Freedom Party. It is thus disgraceful that the UK Conservative Party has taken up this stance.

 

I'm not sure public opinion has moved to the right Ides. I think it's moved generally to a place of discontent, and parties or movements of the far right have been better than the left at exploiting that. The exception being Greece, where Syriza swept the board at two general elections, or indeed Spain where Podemos threatened to displace the mainstream left of centre parties.

In the UK the dominance of the Tories over Labour is, imo, almost entirely down to public perceptions of the respective leaders. May inspires confidence, Corbyn inspires...well, as a life long Labour supporter and party member, I don't want to say. It's not confidence though.

 

So disgusting how the UK treats it's sick and disabled.

ATOS do the medicals for PIP, so not surprising. Kind of messed up that they had their ESA contract stopped due to complaints, yet are still able to do PIP.

 

Unless you count the Lib Dems, who have begun to show signs of reviving their flagging fortunes by positioning themselves as the voice of reason over Europe.

 

Shades of the Tower Hamlets episode a few years ago in Stoke:

"The LibDems have written to the Labour Party and Staffordshire Police after it emerged a Labour activist has sent text messages to Muslim voters warning them to vote for Gareth Snell or “answer for this in the Grave and on the Final Day”."

https://order-order.com/2017/02/16/libdems-call-cops-vote-snell-go-hell-muslim-texts/

 

Hmn. I smell bullshit.

 

Is order-order fake news now? Or do you mean the Lib Dems?

"Lib Dem chief Tim Farron blasted: “It is worrying and quite serious as it seeks to persuade people on the basis of religious pressure rather than political opinion.

He added: “In the UK this is an illegal activity and strictly prohibited under election law.”"

 

I think it would be a bad idea to go to the polls (if they could) when they are about to trigger Article 50. I think they have enough to sort out without trying to campaign for an election. I bet they wish they could though.

 

Well, I was a life-long Tory voter and party member. I'm now a card-carrying Liberal. The Tories have lost me, probably forever. I detest the way the gang of five is forcing through maniac Brexitmax-at-all-costs. There are plenty like me in my new party. At the moment, most of the members I meet are educated, well informed, pro-Europeans, many of them ex-Tory.

However, the message will eventually get through to the people at the bottom (many of them Labour voters at heart) who were ruthlessly misled about Brexit being good for them when all the evidence is that they'll be the ones hardest hit. They'll see that Corbyn is pitiful on the subject of the EU so the Liberals may well be the only party to which they can turn.

Vin

 

Under the old rules there would have been a justification for May calling an election in the autumn to seek her own mandate but she couldn't have done that even if she wanted to. I suspect she wouldn't have done even if she could, simply because keeping Corbyn as Labour leader works in May's favour at a fairly tricky time.

The only situation where I could have seen an early election would have been if the Article 50 Bill hadn't passed (or doesn't pass I suppose, although that looks unlikely). That would have been something of a constitutional crisis and I think she could have made a strong case for an early election and/or forced the issue by calling a vote of confidence. There might still be an issue of major importance that triggers an early election but it seems very unlikely.

It's risky for the Conservatives because we're getting towards the point where we're "due" another recession anyway.

 

I was thinking that only last night.

But then I remembered that Gordon Brown abolished boom and bust, realised we'll be fine, turned over and slipped into a contented sleep.

Vin

 

Recessions tend to average in 18 year cycles. Yes we did have a couple closer together very early eighties and very early nineties but still.

I predicted a recession in 2008/9 so I started clearing my debts in 2015/6 and was debt free just as we hit recession. I haven't taken any more debt on since then either.

We aren't "due" another recession however I do think there will be one in the near future. Not because countries are struggling with debt but because people are loading up again!

 

So are you saying if May decided to push for G Election the Labour parliamentary party would say 'we're not ready to challenge for power', and not provide the 2/3rds needed. I can see the headlines now..

 

No, you can't really be "due" a recession which is why I used the quote marks. However, since the 50s we've had recessions in:

1956
1961
1973/74
1975
1980/81
1990/91
2008/09

You can merge the two in the 70s I guess but the 18 year gap between the last two was unusual, freakish even, and looks somewhat like a double-length gap. Somewhere between 5 and 10, maybe 12, years has been more usual.

I agree about people taking on debt. To some extent it makes sense because interest rates are so low right now but I'm not sure that will last (my wife and I are just about to start re-fixing our mortgage rate) and I expect some (many?) will struggle when rates rise.

Add in the ongoing problems in Southern Europe and things seem quite precarious right now.

 

One thing has always intrigued me about the Fixed Term Parliaments Act. You need a two thirds majority to vote for an early election but there can also be one if the House of Commons passes a vote of no confidence in the government and doesn't pass a vote of confidence in the 14 days after that.

So technically I think Theresa May could get all her MPs to support a motion of no confidence in the government and then vote down any other votes of confidence in the next 14 days. Not sure how the public would react to that though.