King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes - Ascot 29th July 2017

What are you trying to say Shergs?
Quote from Timeform
"Enable has yet to face ground softer than good herself but there are strong signs in her pedigree that she will handle it (dam won a listed race with cut in the ground, while Enable’s half-sister Contribution was group placed on good to soft), and overall there seem to be few chinks in her armour heading in to this year’s King George."

I know Timeform has its critics here but I wouldn't go so far as to say they were clueless

Official going on the Friday
Going: GOOD (Overall 7.5; Home Straight: Far side 7.1, Stand side 7.7)

Official going on the Saturday
Going: GOOD (Good to firm in places; 7.6; 5f course: 8.0)

Can't imagine that somewhere between the 2 days it went to soft

 

In the Chester Vase back in May Derby winner Wings Of Eagles beat Finn Mccool about 13 lengths. Naughty Or Nice beat Finn Mccool 2 lengths, so you could say the Derby winner would beat Naughty Or Nice 11 lengths. Enable beat Naughty or Nice 27 lengths in the Irish Oaks.

Not ridiculous enough to suggest that this collateral form is worth paying too much attention to (and you can find slightly contradictory form if you dig a little deeper also), but it's got to be a little noteworthy nonetheless. Have been watching a few videos of Enable this morning and I think the hype is fully justified. With the allowance I really think Enable wins this race comfortably, and only wish I had Ulysses each way now to complement the selection

 

48 hours later:

I'll check in again on Friday, see what the verdict is then shall I

Anyone taking 11/8 Enable needs there head seen about imo, she's beaten absolutely nothing, the only Group One horse she beat was a non stayer. The Irish Oaks was that bad a race I didn't even watch it, I assume the horses she beat that day would be 500/1+ for this race and there'd still be no takers. No, 11/8 is an absolutely rancid price on her achievements to date, your banking on the hype/Gosden factor. If the ground was nice, fast summer ground HIGHLAND REEL would be a certainty at this trip, after all he's probably won more Group Ones than his market rivals have combined ffs, and he's stuffed that Ulysses a couple of times already hasn't he but if the grounds sticky or soft as you boys reckon he'll struggle to win and it'll be a race I wouldn't be wasting my money on.

 

Surely the point of a racing forum is that you think out loud? The thought that Enable wouldn't win was exactly that, my initial thought. But having studied the form a little more, listened to the arguments of people whose opinions you respect, assessed the weather forecast in more detail as the day approaches, and watched video upon video of Enable running (assessing the action and how she'll go through deeper ground etc), I am now convinced she'll win, based on all of those factors not based on hype or the Gosden factor. And so certain am I that i'm topping up my 2/1 from the other day with a bit of the lousy 11/8 on offer. It's clearly a poor price but i finally feel like I have got a grip on this race now so am happy to back my eye and go in again on that. You can have the revised 1-2-3 as well: Enable, Ulysses, Jack Hobbs.

 

The stopwatch does not appear to verify your assertion that the Oaks was run on soft ground, so you may not be all that clued up.

Enable’s winning time of 2:34.13 was the fastest winning time in the last ten years, fractionally faster than Taghrooda in 2014. Highland Reel’s winning time for the Coronation Cup of 2:33.34 was also the fastest in the last ten years in that race and took place before any rain.

The fact that it rained during the Oaks does not immediately mean that the ground was soft. It would not have soaked into the ground but would have led to the runners kicking the moistened turf off.

The following seven furlong listed race was won in 1:21.97 and the concluding seven furlong handicap was 1:21:62, both perfectly respectable times on ground officially described as “Good”.

On Derby Day, the going was described as “Good (Good to Firm in places)” and Wings Of Eagles clocked 2:33.02 in a race with suicidal early pace.

One rain shower does not automatically result in the ground becoming soft.

If they have as minimal an amount of rain at Ascot as we have had ‘ere up norf today (despite the forecast suggesting Biblical proportions), it may have dried out considerably by Saturday even though there may be some rain on Friday.

 

DavidQuinn, I wasn't having a dig, it made me laugh that's all! I thought the sarcastic whistle afterwards would tell you that! I've often changed my mind on big races too, as we all have, but it's usually a gradual process for most not a two day complete turnaround to say something hasn't a fecking hope to it's a fecking certainty

 

No offence taken of course. And the fact that it's been consuming most of my thoughts for the last two days probably explains the quickness of the about turn! Now i'm certain of my read on it i'm going to get on with my life until Saturday and then sit back and watch the show

 

Amongst the middle distance division, that may prove to be the case (although I do not think so yet) but I still like dual Guineas winner Winter.

Ulysses won the Gordon Stakes over twelve furlongs and was fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Turf. At this stage we may all be overplaying the soft ground element of the race as they may not get much rain in Berkshire on Friday or Saturday; however, the balance of his form does not suggest that he would welcome it.

According to SportingLife.com, Racing UK, Paris Turf and a few other sources, Gerald Mosse is riding Sixties Song (and you can get 66/1 with Sky Bet).

 

Interesting. ATR and Racing Post have Peslier. Bound to be one of those

 

Curiously on the SportingLife.com race card for Saturday, they have the jockey as “O Peslier”. I wonder if Peslier got claimed for something in France (there is a Group 3 and two Listed races at Deauville) so they have had to make an alternate booking.

 

Jack Hobbs has also stuffed that Highland Reel a few times hasnt he, its almost as if form can be turned around, fast ground Ulysses will devour Highland Reel now at any trip.

Highland Reel won one of the worst King Georges you will ever see with Wings Of Desire 2nd, Dartmouth 3rd and Sir Isaac Newton 4th, hes beat perennial bridesmaid Flintshire who was given an impossible task, Frontiersman who cant win a Group 2 in the Coronation Cup and Group 2 Decorated Knight in the Prince Of Wales.

Ulysses has improved past Highland Reel now and the only thing you can be certain about with Highland Reel is that he will get thumped by a proper horse, he is a horse who takes his opportunities because hes such a solid racehorse, but in terms of class, he is not the best horse in this race, even with his conditions and the names of the races he has won.

 

New Bay, Jack Hobbs, Golden Horn, Almanzor, Found, Postponed, Werther, Winx, Satono Crown

Highland Reel is no champion, hes been slaughtered far too many times, hes ran against Jack Hobbs twice at 1m4 and been beaten a combined 23L

 

As far as I can see Highland Reel has raced Jack Hobbs three times, smashing him up on quick ground at R Ascot last time out and losing twice to him, (getting smashed up himself on bad ground at Meydan). Not sure what the schools are like in Glesga but two does not equal a 'few' dear boy... And it's 2-1 head to head between them?

As far as I'm aware Highland Reel has faced Useless twice and beaten him twice....

 

few
determiner, pronoun, & adjective

1. 1.
   a small number of.

noun

1. 1.
   the minority of people; the elect.
   "art is not just for the few"
   synonyms: a small number, a handful, a sprinkling, one or two, a couple, two or three;

2 does not equal a small number of?

can see now why Catholic schools are absolutely slaughtering Protestant ones

 

Highland Reel has beaten Ulysses twice, but not Ulysses as we know him now.

Henry and Ravens a fine example of what can happen midway through a season

 

You are aware using this definition that it could then be said Highland Reel has stuffed Jack Hobbs a few times, as one is also a 'small number of'?! Somewhat nullifying your original point you muppet

Anyway Jack Hobbs winning wouldn't really surprise me, I never mentioned him in my original post, but I am glad to see I can trigger you as per the norm

 

I was just using Jack Hobbs as an example. You dismissed Ulysses as Highland Reel already beating him a few times, as if that was it, nothing more to be said, he cant ever beat Highland Reel.

 

Fair enough guys maybe the ground wasn't as soft as I would have thought. Then again Epsom does dry out pretty quickly, so it's hard to say for sure how much the down poor before the Oaks affected the ground.

Either way if the ground wasn't soft as you 2 are saying and the rain didn't affect it much, then it makes Enables performance all the more impressive, 1 horse within 11 lengths of her is impressive on soft ground, but on faster ground it's an even more impressive winning margin.

Timeform mention Ron, that there is encouragement on her dam side that she will go well on soft, but let's not forget her sire, Nathaniel won both his G1s on good to soft ground, including a victory in the KG. So on pedigree alone she should be very effective on soft ground.