King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes - Ascot 29th July 2017

She must have lovely conformation if she can act well on soft ground, go bloody fast on fast ground and win G1s easily at Epsom and the Curragh. Sounds like she will make a lovely brood mare

 

Looking at the way Enable ran at Epsom on the soft ground, I think she's a certainty for the KG if conditions stay the same.

It would be a close match up with Highland Reel if the ground was good to firm, but looking back through Highland Reels form he's ran on ground that had soft in the description quite a few times and he's never won.

Enable is the only high class 3yo of this current generation, and I'm sure she will prove it against the older horses.

 

Happy with 10/1 Jack Hobbs, probably still decent value at 11/2.

 

Has Enable beaten anything of note yet? Just to be 100% clear the answer is no.

In subsequent races, the entire Oaks field, barring Enable, has managed 2 wins - one group 2 for Coronet, where she beat not much by not very far, and a maiden win. Of the 11 runs since the Oaks, horses that ran in the Oaks finished unplaced 8 times. Two wins mentioned above and a second in a questionable listed race.

If you delve into the Oaks form a little more you'll see it's shot to pieces. Rhododendron ran a good second in the 1000 in May but she was clearly outstayed in this race when Enable's stamina kicked in. I'm not saying beating the 1000 runner up by 5 lengths is bad form but you can definitely question the strength of Rhododendron's form prior to the Oaks - the Fillies Mile win looks crap in hindsight. The loss in the Moyglare against trees looks rubbish. She's basically run against three horses her entire 2 year old career. Sometimes beaten them. sometimes been beaten by them. All three have very average form at the end of the day. You could argue she was over the top when she ran in France and i think there was an injury at some point there.

I personally thought the Irish Oaks was a terrible renewal pre race let alone once it finished. She beat trees. Rain Godess ran second having previously run second in the Pretty Polly when receiving weight from the winner. On the face of it a good run but the winner was a Varian horse that had never won better than a listed race previously. Alarm bells are ringing. The third, admittedly beaten miles, was a Weld horse (terrible stable form at the time) that had won a group 3 at 2 that has proven to be one of the worst in years. Coronet was back in 4th that day and we've already covered how crap her group 2 at Ascot was. Alluringly was third at Epsom. What has she done before or after that race? 2nd in the Chester Oaks behind Enable. Look at what's in behind. Absolutely no form whatsoever.

If you take all that into account you've surely got to question why she's likely to beat the chaps in the King George. However, there's so many questions and doubts about the rest of the field that she may nick it.

Soft ground or worse pretty much rules out Highland Reel as a betting proposition at these prices which is a shame.He can still win it obviously but you need your head reading to back him at 2/1 on likely soft ground. Idaho would be similar eve at 6/1. Jack Hobbs has a reputation as a mud lover but i'm baffled where that's come from because i can only really see him winning on soft when in Meydan. Yielding has produced two very underwhelming runs when pulled up and then third to Fascinating Rock when an evens fav for the Champions Stakes. 5/1 about that horse is rank.

Ulyses is a funny horse. I don't rate the 3 year old colts at all and he struggled to beat off Barney Roy LTO and there were enough question marks to worry he may have gotten a little lucky that day. I didn't watch that race and think he was desperate for another 2 furlongs. After those what is in the race?

At the end of the day she gets lots of weight from older horses. The three year olds in the race are not up to scratch so i wouldn't worry about them. The older horses all have question marks over the ground or trip or both. I think she's over rated at 120 but even if i'm right and she's actually a 114/115 horse, she'd probably have sufficient allowances to take the race anyway.

I don't know if this horse is running but if he is, at 50/1, i'm going to take a chance that My Dream Boat has been targeted towards this race and if he has, it's only a year ago that he beat Found at Ascot admittedly over 10 furlongs.

I really wouldn't be surprised if this was a bit of a bunched finish with the head of the market fighting it out for the win but 50/1 is fine as an each way play where there's huge question marks about the entire field in these conditions.

 

He doesnt need soft ground, just quite fragile and doesnt want it like a road, gd to soft is probably perfect for him, there is no doubt he has his conditions here, ground and trip, and everything looks set for a career defining run if the real Jack Hobbs turns up on the day. He bumped into a proper champion in Golden Horn or he would probably have been retired after winning the Dante and both Derby's as a 3yo, doubt they would have persevered with his issues if that had been the case.

Enable is rated 122 and she is definitely a 120 filly, 114 is ludicrous. She has beat nothing in Ireland and and slightly more than nothing at Epsom but everyone can see she is top class. That said, this is her first proper test and id let her win at 7/4 all day long, wont lose any sleep over missing that, shes priced up like shes already done it against a higher standard of horse, but obviously the weight allowance is massively factored into the price.

 

She won at 7/2 but im sure you were getting 11/2 5/1 about Taghrooda against probably a weaker field. Telescope, Eagle Top, Magician and Mukhadram who was a 1m2 horse. Id say Highland Reel, Jack Hobbs and Ulysses is a tougher task although I suppose you could argue that conditions could be against two of them and the other isnt the most dependable.

 

If they think the ground is decent enough for Ulysses I will be backing him as well, id be all over him in this if it was firm ground as im not worried about the trip at all, he doesnt owe me anything after last time and the price he is just now I cant let that go, him and Jack Hobbs at nice prices will do for me.

 

I'm also in the camp that thinks the Jack Hobbs loves it soft thing is being overplayed. He could easily win this race as when he turns up on a going day he can beat anyone. I also understand that connections like to see some kind of soft in the description because he's developed into a fragile horse. But his form seems completely non ground dependent to me, something you'd expect to see given a look at his breeding. That doesn't give him any less of a chance in this race as he has often followed up a baffling performance with a top class one. Before Meydan I'd never rated the horse as good enough to win a King George, and it would disappointing for me if he now proved to be so, especially as there's a Stoute horse at the top of his game and a Gosden filly with the world at her feet.

I agree Enable's form doesn't read as all that at the moment, but she has been given no chance really to prove otherwise. Her cruising speed will be key (and you can argue that hasn't been tested yet) as if she's within striking distance with 2f to go she'll be staying on better than most and could well outkick them all

 

I'm not convinced enough by Enable to back her at 11/8 considering that this is a fairly high standard renewal of the race.
On faster ground I still think Highland Reel would win comfortably, I am just not sure on the softer ground.

Ulysees would appear the value call - not sure why he is double the odds of Jack Hobbs ?

 

I should have made my point a bit clearer - she's 7/4 and that price is wrong based on what we've seen so far. Saturday is a massive step up in class. 120/122 it doesn't really matter. Given what she's beaten it's all purely based on guesswork at this point. How the handicapper could up her rating after the Irish Oaks is anyone's guess. She may very well be a true 122 horse and if she is she'll win by lengths going away but why would anyone take anything from 11/8 to 7/4 to find out?

 

Ground Steveo. I think there's question marks about whether he'll run.

 

I can see why Ulysses is double the price based simply on form. Jack Hobbs has twice beaten Highland Reel (including destroying him over in Meydan) and Highland Reel has twice beaten Ulysses. I expect that Ulysses has improved past Highland Reel and i'd back him in a match bet on any ground nowadays. Jack Hobbs and Enable are unknowns to a certain extent - Jack Hobbs as he could produce a high class performance or be pulled up, Enable as we are still unsure as to how good she might be. I give Highland Reel no chance in this, I think Jack Hobbs is priced right and fear him, would love to see Ulysses win (but fear the ground might hamper his chances of being at the peak he would need to be at to win this race), and I think the favourite is now the right one (albeit it 2/1 would be a fair price). I pulled the trigger too early on reflection - it's turned into such an intriguing race now that I would have been happy to watch without wondering about the wallet

 

I'm a bit torn here - I backed Jack Hobbs at Royal Ascot and her failed so badly that I am reluctant to back him again...but he has got the form over Highland Reel and likes soft ground.

getting very confused by this race - how about an each way on another in form horse - Hawkbill ? a good win at the July meeting and goes well on soft ground.14/1

 

We can go through the Oaks form as Boston Bob has and rip it to pieces as he has.

The way she won it, yeah most of the field are likely nothing special. But I do happen to believe that Rhodedendron is a very good fillie. Wether she'd of won the Guineas we'll never know, but she's run very well in that race despite getting interference. Also the fact Ryan Moore chose Rhodedendron over Winter, speaks volumes for how much they rate her.

Rhodedendron was the only horse within 11 lengths of Enable at Epsom
that day, she had the whole field strung out like washing. I just can't ignore the power that fillie had in her stride when she went for home, she just looks all class to me.

The Irish oaks wasn't on paper brilliant form, but it was again the manner of it, it was just so easy, and she was being eased in the last 100 yards.

I just think these colts are gonna have their work cut out to stop her, I don't actually think they can stop her if she turns up in the same form as she was at Epsom.

 

She has never run on soft Shergs

 

Officially she hasn't. But to all us clued up punters she has. The Epsom Oaks was run on soft ground. There was loads of rain after they gave the official ground conditions.

 

As visually impressive as Enable was in both Oaks Rhodedendron is the only solid yardstick to rate her against. I would guess Rhodedendron ran to form at Epsom but that's a guess that I wouldn't take 11/8 about her beating proven group horses.

The last update on the going from Ascot was Soft, Good to Soft in places as of yesterday so that would rule out Highland Reel for me although if he drifts to an each-way price I would have a bet on him as he has finished second in an Arc on soft ground although it would have to be good to soft at worst.

Of the others I couldn't trust Frontiersman. Hawkbill looked booked for second at Newmarket until Frontiersman threw in away. Jack Hobbs is more than capable but his run at Royal Ascot would put me off him and Ulysses looks like he wants 10f and fast ground. My Dream Boat looks a big price but he hasn't replicated his Prince Of Wales Stakes win from last year.

I'll have an each-way stab at Benbatl at 20/1. He has to step up a bit on his recent form but he looks to be a progressive type and the ground should be fine for him. I don't think the Derby is the worst line of form around and he was one who came out of it looking as though he could go on to be a group 1 horse.

 

It rained less than five minutes before the off so it probably didn't affect the going that much. I wouldn't take it as a given that she'd like soft ground.

 

Well I'm not quite sure that I agree that it wouldn't have affected the ground. First of all the ground was classed as good in the morning, so it wouldn't have taken a lot to change that to good to soft or soft. It was also a very heavy down poor, you can see from watching the oaks just how heavy it was. Another good clue from the ground is to watch how much the horses are ripping up as they run, and the ground definitely looked soft to me.

So for me I'd be confident that the ground was at the very least good to soft, but more likely soft.

 

It's a pity the Derby winner got injured as, although I wasn't impressed with the Derby at all, the winner overcame all sorts of trouble in running and came home like a train in a fast time, going away. He might well have turned out to be a good'un and this race would have told us a lot about the chances of him and enable for the Arc. He was probably far better than anything else in the field and was improving. Therefore, I couldn't look at anything else that ran in the Derby. Enable won the Oaks so easily I couldn't look at anything else in that race for a G1. So Enable is the best 3yo racing by "a mile". Highland Reel is as tough and genuine as a horse can be but he has run some fast times on fast going and I just can't see him winning if it comes up soft. He has never run on soft and has only run on GS once over 12f when beaten last year by Dartmouth, on this course. That isn't good enough form to win the KG&QE. Fast going and he is a certainty for the first 3.

Can't make up my mind about Ulysses. Will he stay? Don't know. Will he act on soft going? Don't know but he has no form on any ground softer than good (can't count winning a very poor maiden last year; something had to win it). Will he stay 12f on soft ground? For me that could be asking too much this year

How any of these 4yos can give Enable 14lb is beyond me

The dark horse in the race is the 4yo Argentinian Sixties Song who gets the assistance of Olivier Peslier. A long way to come and a very significant jockey booking (50/1).