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Grand National Weights and initial forum reactions

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by woolcombe-folly007, Feb 14, 2017.

  1. stick

    stick Bumper King

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    The yard have him and Pendra entered and I believe they have built some Aintree style fences at home to practise on. Hardly prepares you for the cavalry charge though does it. Good looking animal DOJ and a very nice jumper.
     
    #41
    Chaninbar likes this.
  2. Chaninbar

    Chaninbar The Crafty Cockney

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    Yep very good jumper, lovely weight and huge price. Absence of a run though would put me off. Shutthefrontdoor (49) down 8 lbs from his 2015 5th @ 50/1, Vicente (43) 1lb higher than his Scottish National winning mark @ 33/1 and Houblon Des Obeaux (33) just a very grand game horse @ 50/1 would be my 3 ew picks against the field.
     
    #42
  3. lamby

    lamby Needs a cold shower

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    The Young Master for me backed t at 33s now 20s. Really nice prep run at Cheltenham last week.
     
    #43
  4. woolcombe-folly007

    woolcombe-folly007 Well-Known Member

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    Jonjo has come and said STFD will be taken out (if he hasn't already) and head for the Irish national!

    Also Trevor Hemmings has purchased Vicente so I take that as a bit of a tip itself. He knows what to look for in a national winner!
     
    #44
  5. Chaninbar

    Chaninbar The Crafty Cockney

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    Ah ok, STFD 16s for the Irish version. Would be of interest at that price if he goes there.
     
    #45
  6. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    I have a worry about horses under 8 in the GN stick. That was my main concern about Minella Rocco, so I'm glad he isn't going for it now. I was impressed by Vieux Lion Rouge at Haydock but, although now 8, is he 48l better than last year with 6lbs more to carry? There are a few horses that have close form with him and it may just depend on which one is best over the longer distance, rather than which one is "y" lbs better off for "x" lengths
     
    #46
  7. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    I beg your pardon stick. He is 8 <doh>
     
    #47
  8. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    It's all about the going, if we get some cut then I think Tenor Nivernais and possibly Bishops Road would be interesting but if it's spring ground I'd have it between Blaklion, Saphir Du Rheau and Cause Of Causes (I think he might be rejuvenated by the xcountry)
     
    #48
  9. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    I'm just starting to see if I can make sense of this year's race

    Firstly I have categorised those that ran last year:
    - of the 16 that finished 5 are entered again, all carrying more weight than last year, notably The Last Sumari who is up 15lb
    - of the 5 fallers, none are entered
    - of the 12 pulled up 2 are entered
    - of the 6 that unseated rider 2 are entered

    41 of the top 50 entries did not run in last year's GN

    So 82% of this year's possible runners did not take part in last year's event (I'm assuming anything over No 50 won't be taking part)

    It's going to take a long time to go through this lot then.

    Initial thoughts are
    - focus on 8, 9 and 10yos. There would have to be a very solid case for selecting an 11yo and I won't even consider anything under 8 and over 11
    - eliminate any of last year's runners that just couldn't keep up
    I'll try to analyse 5 of the aforementioned 41 runners each day in ascending race card order and rate the chances of each. Hopefully I will arrive at a short list of no more than 10 which I will then whittle down to 3.

    Oh bollocks! What have I done?
     
    #49
  10. Sir Barney Chuckles

    Sir Barney Chuckles Who Dares Wins

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    Cocktails At Dawn remains in and the 80’s is still available. Smoke and mirrors people, smoke and mirrors. Now number 42 in the rankings and all but guaranteed to get in.

    Personally, one would have thought that the one to take out of Cheltenham re this heat is the horse named after what I’ve got – yes, that’s right regular readers, Wonderful Charm. Is also in the same ownership as Cocktails. Ran a lovely staying-on 2nd in the ‘tally-ho brigade’s’ race and has a touch of class about him. Will carry around the 11 stone impost but I find it hard to comprehend that 66/1 is still freely available re this one.
     
    #50

  11. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Whilst looking at some of the top horses Barney I have noticed "btn xl Cocktails at Dawn" and that has stuck in my mind. Can't wait to get to this one
     
    #51
  12. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    I didn't wait; had to have a look. It was 17 months ago when he gave 8lbs and a beating to Native River, Blaklion and Regal Encore. The big worry would be that he has had 3 runs at Aintree resulting in: fell, pu and btn 78l by Many Clouds
     
    #52
  13. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    At Chepstow when first run over fences for all bar CAD
     
    #53
  14. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Cheers Nass, that makes it even easier to cross him off my list.
     
    #54
  15. Sir Barney Chuckles

    Sir Barney Chuckles Who Dares Wins

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    Ron, I really wouldn’t worry about those 3 runs. The run behind Many Clouds was solely an attempt to qualify the horse for the GN (he needed to finish in the first 4 of a 3 miles+ steeplechase prior to the weights being released) which was achieved. Cocktails At Dawn was never put in the race to win, at any stage, but to simply achieve this aim. The ‘P’ effort came when the horse was ‘over the top’ (and the race a mere afterthought) last May having been trained solely for the Topham the previous month. That was where the ‘F’ was achieved when Cocktails At Dawn fell at the 6th on his sole attempt at the National fences. But he had been enjoying the experience up to then bounding along with great enthusiasm. I’m sure I’ll be accused of putting more ‘spin’ on this than either Goebbels or ‘Mandy’ Mandleson ever did but I genuinely think he’s incredibly well handicapped and if Cocktails At Dawn gets the run of the race then 80/1 is a massive, massive price re his chances.

    You only have to go back through his form to the Chepstow race, you mention, and the Sandown handicap win off 133 to see just how potentially well handicapped the horse is.

    I don’t always think the horse has been allowed to run on his merits or perhaps to put it more diplomatically has been given, in the past, a few ‘preps’ or ‘educational’ outings. Incidentally, as I’ve said before I’m sure the Stewards share this view as they have enquired into his running on 2 previous occasions and sought explanations from the trainer a further couple of times.
     
    #55
  16. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    That is clearly tempting Barney but when he fell at Kempton more recently he was leading when fell at the 9th. I doubt that was part of the plan and may have knocked confidence a bit for these big fences. I do have clear in my memory the fall of Kilmore (Fred Winter I think rode him) before going on to win the GN. Luckily I stuck with him though, having been my selection for some time ante post. If he runs to his best and stands up he could well run into a place but I have a feeling I might find a few more that are more likely to end up on my final short list. That statement has just improved his chances no end - you can thank me later <laugh>
     
    #56
  17. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Ah sod it. I'm not going through that lot. I find myself doing exactly what doesn't apply in a Grand National (ie horse a is xlbs better off than when beaten y lengths by horse b). Past form is not reliable as not only have these horses been prepared for the GN, and therefore may not have been at their peak in previous races (or even trying), for most horses this is also a totally different set of fences and much further than they have encountered. More importantly, had I applied the same thinking for last year’s GN I could not have arrived at the winner; not even with hindsight

    I think we can discard form, especially when considering Barney's comments re Cocktails at Dawn. Better to watch videos and try to identify those that look able to keep up, jump well and stay.

    Good luck chaps. Oh for the 1950s/60s when it was so much easier
     
    #57
  18. Sir Barney Chuckles

    Sir Barney Chuckles Who Dares Wins

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    Interesting jockey booking re the GN. Noel 'Touchy' Fehily has been snapped up, by connections, to partner Blaklion. Currently, Blaklion is the co-2nd fave at 14/1.
     
    #58
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  19. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    I took him out of my original shortlist but he is back in now.
     
    #59
  20. Sir Barney Chuckles

    Sir Barney Chuckles Who Dares Wins

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    I see that tomorrow morn Just A Par will be declared for the GN at the final stage and then at approximately 6 pm sold at ‘The Aintree Sale’. Here’s his sales page - http://www.goffsuk.com/GoffsCMS/_Sales/140/1.pdf

    Will be fascinating to see who purchases him and for how much.
     
    #60

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