Cheltenham 2018: Antepost Thread

If Might Bite wins the Gold Cup in 2018 I'll give you the money myself.

 

RSA was a farce. The best 26furlong horse in the race was Alpha but he bled two litres of blood last time and he bled again last week. He went out like a light as soon as the blood flowed and he doesn't do that. Clearly impacted by the bleed.

Well done Might Bite backers. You picked the right horse for a horrible race but just no no no no no. They aren't good chasers.

 

Some sectionals here Nass. Not the RSA though. I'll see if I can find that race

 

Nass, can't find sectionals for the RSA yet but interesting comment from Timeform on the race

"A remarkable RSA saw another trailblazing performance from Might Bite (c166 from c158) in a Grade 1, on this occasion his quirkiness all but getting the better of him (a son of Scorpion after all), squandering a 10-length lead before the loose Marinero coming through to give him a lead late on, after which he ran on well enough to snatch victory from his patiently-ridden stablemate Whisper (c156 from c152p). The winner’s effort was on a par with the best winning performances this century, which ranks him alongside Bobs Worth and Denman among others, though a more straightforward Might Bite would have produced an outstanding performance for the race, having set a strong pace and jumped well in the main."

 

It looked to me like a very slowly run race this year the Gold Cup and one of the questions I had coming out of it was if Smad Place had run his usual race of tearing off and building his usual lead would he have made it home with the others left plodding? Maybe, maybe not but it seemed like a strange ride on on the horse for me given the apparent lack of pace

 

Interesting view from Timeform, including that Whisper ran his best chase race to date.

 

Might Bite wandered round like a drunk before regaining his senses when the loose horse came by, reminded me of Lord Windermere's gold cup when Bobs Worth and Silvianaco Conti did similar with the race seemingly between them. I wouldn't be keen to take him at 12s with an extra 2 furlongs to travel. Un Temps Pour Tout at 50s would be an ew poke I would have if I had to have a bet. I don't have to and I won't be. UTPT won't be contesting any more handicaps at the festival having won last week of 155. On the basis that you need to be a minimum 10lb well in to win a festival handicap that puts him in the mix at 165.

 

And good luck with your bets Drever, ya mad bugger.

 

I would be interested in Neon Wolf at 8/1 to win at Cheltenham but, as this year, the ground may determine which race he goes for. Therefore I wouldn't back him for a specific race

 

Who would your idea of the three in front be Stick?

I fancy him based on the comments made by Ruby immediately after the JLT where he suggested he would be a Gold Cup horse next season.

 

I wouldnt touch Might Bite for a gold cup personally - a Scorpion who is really going to hang tough. He got an easy unhurried lead and was able to get first move.

No one keen on Sizing John at 8s?! Surely he would go close again - the form in behind seems to be solid enough. While I accept its no vintage field hes done it and seemed to have a bit in hand still. Lots of question marks about all the others. You also know this will be his target.

 

I personally would have Thidtlecrack, Sizing John and even Might Bite in front of him mate.

 

The 2 to take out of the meet, with a view to the 2018 fixture, for me were MELON and WHISPER.

The former really impressed me on just his 2nd run over hurdles and the front pair, in the Supreme, were well, and I do mean well, clear of the remainder. Melon can only improve, improve and improve again with another summer on his back and this experience behind him. Where he will go next term is open to debate but I’d love to see him trained for the ‘Champion Hurdle’. At 16/1 he makes a lot of appeal to my eye. The only negative is that I’ve never heard of his trainer.

I think Whisper really came of age in last week’s RSA and the way he flew up that hill put the slight doubts about his stamina and ability, over the big ‘uns, to the sword once and for bally all. I think the 25/1 for the 2018 CGC is standout and I’m seriously contemplating getting involved. It’s no coincidence that Whisper’s last 3 runs over fences have all been at Cheltenham as he’s being ‘prepped’, if you like, there as that is where his main target will be in 2017/18. Also, as well as this RSA run, he’s a 4 time winner at the venue so obviously loves the place – unlike so, so, so many animals. The obvious drawback is his age (will be a 10YO come next March) but unlike so many animals, aged double digitally, he’s been very lightly raced over fences and I can see him being trained next season with just one race in mind.

 

I have added MELON 12/1 (Arkle) and DEATH DUTY 20/1 (RSA) to the list of horses I've backed.

 

Is there not a chance Melon will stay over hurdles? Sure i read somewhere he was brought to be a CH horse. With Faugheen and Annie unlikely to make it Willie needs something for the race.....
Personally i think he looks and jumps like a chaser but I thought that about Buveau D'Air this time last year as well!

 

I’ve never understood why a top, top, top horse (I’m not talking about your average beast but the likes of Sprinter Sacre, Douvan, Vautour, Altior in recent terms) can’t have a novice chase campaign (say 3 runs prior to the Festival to learn their trade and pick up some Graded honours) then run in the ‘Champion Hurdle’ before the following season going back over fences and competing a ‘top table’ over fences and ultimately being aimed at either the ‘Champion Chase’ or, if more of a stayer, the CGC. This prizemoney for a Champion Hurdle winner is £250k and an Arkle victor £100k (or JLT £90k)! As one of those Chavs might say ‘Go figure’!

Winning the Champion Hurdle and then either of the Chases mentioned also sets the horse on the road to immortality. Whereas, you’ve forgotten who won the ‘Arkle’ by the next day! I really do think some owners want to be a bit more bolder and braver in their strategies, people.

I’m sure the racing purists (remember them?!?) will be up in arms at this suggestion but to me it makes total sense.

 

I'm up in arms over that.

 

Melon couldnt win a poor Supreme with a perfect trip

 

http://community.betfair.com/horse_...st-431-certainty-of-all-time#flvWelcomeHeader

 

C'mon lads, let's not turn this thread into a slanging match.

Genuinely want to get your antepost thoughts because you're both very knowledgeable and if you think there is value to be had somewhere, shout up