Match Day Thread Aston Villa v Norwich City

Yes stats lie and they don't take into account other things that players contribute to a game or a team nor things outside the players contorl like who they are playing alongside and the quality of the opposition. Also although I don't have stats to prove it I would suggest that Jerome has been played much more as a lone striker, wheres when Olivira plays he tends to play as a second striker, mainly alongside Jerome. Perhaps Jerome's biggest strength is when a team breaks quick, moving the ball from defence through the midfield to the striker to run at the goal. One of our biggest failings this season (other than our defense) is getting ball forward quickly. No one seems to have told Tettey that he is allowed to play the ball forward (as well as side to side & backwards), very few of our defenders have the ability to pass the ball forward quickly out of defence and Hoolahan doesn't seem to be able to do anything without doing a little twirl first (i.e. slowing the game down). Why is Olivira the the best striker we have ? Being a striker is much more than just being able to score goals (although I accept that is important) such as the ability to hold up the ball.

A quick look at the BBC championship scoring table shows Jerome in 7th with 14 goal and a 52% shots on target score, so more often than not he hits the target.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/championship/top-scorers

All the strikers above him have played more minutes.

Interestingly Oliveira does not feature in this table.

He does feature in the Soccer stats table some 30 places below Jerome with 8 goals, which shows him as contributing 12% of the teams goals compared to Jerome's 22%

http://www.soccerstats.com/scorers.asp?league=england2

Transfer market which I know some on here like quoting shows Jerome as scoring 14 in 34 Championship appearances (0.41 goals per game) and Olivira as scoring 8 in 21 Championship appearences (0.38 goals per game).

http://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/championship/torschuetzenliste/wettbewerb/GB2/saison_id/2016

So all things considered I would choose Jerome over Oliveira because in championship games he contributes more both in terms of goals and team effort.

 

He also doesn't get sent off or injured that often ..... just saying

 

I accept your argument canario, but I would far rather Basil any day. As for his red card (which was foolish), but that should have been a penalty to us, as the defender wrestled him to the ground and then in one of the PL games the following day, there was a much more serious offence and neither player got booked.
NB - I know DD and others blame Basil's red card for costing us promotion and he has only had ONE red card!!!!

Thanks Suffolk - NO contest IMO and at least Basil gets a lot more attempts on target. OK, he doesn't perhaps run around as much as Jerome, but Jerome's 'end product' is woeful and canario - PL's premise was, "OK, the opposition can score goals, but we'll score MORE!!!" and the fans loved his tactics and we'll have to agree to disagree, but if we'd scored more goals, then we could easily have found ourselves in the play-off places

 

Would be interested to see any stats that shows that Oliveira gets a lot more attempts on target than Jerome and the stats I have been able to find don't suggest Jerome's end product is woeful. As you say we'll have to agree to differ, but if you think that every time we started Jerome we had started Oliveira instead then we'd be in a play off position, I'm sorry but you're deluding yourself.

I agree that if the team had played with PL type attitude Jerome would have scored more goals. But that isn't down to Jerome's abilities only down to the way the management set up the teams.

Jerome is one of the few players in the team this season that every time he's played he's given his all.

 

I don't NEED stats canario, I've seen them both when I've been at home games and I agree that due in the main to our defensive frailties, we'd still be in more or less the same position in the league.
IMO, a striker's role is about at least testing the keeper when given a goal scoring opportunity and in that regard, I would prefer Basil to start more regularly than Jerome. I'd also have liked to have seen BOTH on the pitch together for at least some of the game, but that option apparently didn't exist as far as AN was concerned!!!

 

An interesting article by Chris Goreham (he travels to ALL away games!!) - http://www.edp24.co.uk/features/it_...rwich_city_s_supporters_on_the_road_1_4959108

 

I didn't start the stats thing. It was started by Suffolk to try and demonstrate that Oliveira was the obvious choice to be our first choice striker, but having dug a bit deeper and looked only at championship stats that view was blown out of the water, so now stats don't count. I fully accept the point that when we are playing 2 strikers then Oliveira & Jerome would complement each other, but for most of the season we've been playing one up front and Jerome is infinitely better in that role than Oliveira. In addition Jerome brings much more to the party than Oliveira in other area, such as work effort and as OCF said doesn't get injured or sent off so often. Anyway I think this discussion has run it's course, so i'll try not to post further on this subject.

 

Sorry Canario we are going to have to agree to disagree on this I think.

Oliveira has only been played as a second striker when he comes on as a sub for the last 5 minutes of a game, which accounts for at least 5 of his "appearances", which was why I used the minutes played statistic and minutes per goal, which provide a far more accurate measure of their contribution. Jerome - 195 mins per goal compared to Oliveira - 108 mins per goal, and as I said in my previous post, in terms of actual time on the pitch Oliveira has had half the playing time.

I will have to take you word for the 52% shots on target score for Jerome as that link to the BBC doesn't work for me, but it's not so much his ability to hit the target which I struggle to believe is actually 52% of the time, it's his ability to actually test the opposition. Far too often it is a tame effort or right at the keeper or he manages to scoop it over from 10 yards off a cut back.

Oliveira's link up play is good, he's strong and holds the ball up well, he is technically more gifted, better heading ability, better finisher. In my eyes the only things that Jerome does better is that he has a bit more pace and his ability to "defend from the front".

 

I don't put much faith in stats, but as I said in my post, can only go by what I actually see and whilst I agree with what Jerome 'brings to the party', IMO, a striker's main role is to score goals, or at least test the keeper and I know most of the fans who sit near me are equally exasperated by Jerome's efforts mostly going off target after good build up play by other team members.

 

Here is the link

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/championship/top-scorers

 

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As you said in your post stats lie and whilst I don't know if the stats you provided are correct or not, I'm happy to accept them at face value. I am guessing, in order for the stats you provide to be correct they would have to relate to all games, not just championship games including cup games when we have played weaker opposition. As you say Olveira hasn't played as a lone striker only a second striker assumidly because he isn't up to the role, so if management choose to play a lone striker thats hardly Jerome's fault. In relation to Championship games transfer market this shows

Olivira as playing 961 minutes scoring 8 goals (4 less than the amount you attribute to him) a goal every 120 minutes or 0.38 goals per game.

http://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/nelson-oliveira/leistungsdaten/spieler/72768/saison/2016/plus/1#GB2

Interestingly Oliveira scored a hat trick in the Derby game we skews the figures somewhat. The most Jerome has scored in one game is 2.

Jerome as playing 2644 minutes scoring 14 (15 if you include all games) goals a goal every 189 minutes or 0.41 goals per game.

http://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/cameron-jerome/leistungsdaten/spieler/35855/saison/2016/plus/1#GB2

However the minutes played stat like most stats doesn't tell the whole story, because it doesn't take into account things like sending offs. Also as you highlight Oliveira has mainly come on at the end of games when we have been playing with 2 strikers, whereas Jerome has mainly played as a lone striker with very little support. Playing a fit Oliveira against tiring players alongside another striker certainly plays to his strengths.. I wonder if Oliveira had started games as a sole striker and done the dog work for the first 70 minutes and we had brought on Jerome for the last 20 minutes what the stats would say. Of course we will never know either way, but my point was we haven't missed out on the championship playoffs through lack of goals, we haven't played to Jerome's strengths and it is far from clear that Oliveira is a better striker even on the information we do have.

The trouble is if you exclude stats entirely and just rely on what people see or think they see then it's very ease to mislead yourself. Many people on here would say Jacob Murphy has done well this season but his stats are really quiet poor he played 2467 minutes scoring 8 goals a goal every 308 minutes or 0.23 goals per game.

http://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/jacob-murphy/leistungsdaten/spieler/199527/saison/2016/plus/1#gesamt

 

I don't really know why I'm still rising to this but this will be the last time I will comment as we aren't making any headway towards each others points of view.

I didn't say that Oliveira hasn't played as a lone striker, he has in fact started in that role 11 times this season, scoring 8 goals in those appearances alone and getting sent off after 18 minutes in one of those games. The other 10 appearances he has made in the league have been when he has entered the fray towards the end of the game, because he came to us with an injury. So that screws your theory that he only comes on and scores because he is a secondary striker playing against a tiring defence.

You can't say that Oliveira has a better scoring rate per minute played in one statement and then try to say that Jerome is better because he scores more goals per game. 1 minutes on the pitch counts as an appearance.

In that hat-trick game against an in-form Derby side, he was absolutely unplayable and dominant.

I think Murphy has done really well this season, it has been his breakthrough season in the championship, playing in a badly underperforming team. 1 goal every 4 games isn't bad stats for a twenty-one year old winger in his first proper season of competitive football. He's also notched 8 assists.

 

Yep you're right my comment about Oliveira playing as a lone striker doesn't make sense, what I think I meant to say was

Olveira hasn't played as a lone striker, as much as he's played as a second striker, assumidly because he isn't up to the role, so if management choose to play a lone striker that's hardly Jerome's fault.

I don't accept that Murphy has done really well this season, he's done ok, pretty much what you would expect for an up and coming player, certainly not exceptional. Yes he's had 8 assists, but Jerome has had 7 and surely as a winger he should have been getting significantly more assists than a striker.

Anyway lets just agree to differ and move on.

 

Murphy hasn't had more assists simply because CJ is the lone striker and keeps fecking missing when Jacob tees him up!

 

EXCELLENT!!!!

 

Yep you're right Murphy & Oliveria are the best thing since sliced bread and can do no wrong. Jerome brings nothing else to the game other than being a bit quick and possibly being a bit better defending from the front. His 7th place in the championship scorers table, the fact that he has more assists than those above him in the table and 52% shots on target figure are just a lie. He brings nothing extra to the team other than bring us down by being a really bad striker and if only we'd played someone else instead of him, indeed anyone, then we would surely not be in the position we're in.

 

Every striker in the table above him has less assists maybe he should stop setting up his team mates for sitters (like Oliveira's chance on Saturday) and go for goal more himself. In truth it's probably says more about how the management have set up the team using Jerome as a hold up striker to allow our midfield time (and they need a lot of it) to get up and support him.

 

No I've changed my mind again Jerome has done a good job this year, not exceptional, but good. He has always been up for the fight, something very few of his team mates can claim and has led by example, something our captain and other regular senior first team players have regularly failed to do. Despite management deploying tactics that don't play to his strengths he has scored a good number of goals, reaching 7th in the Championship scorers league table and also had more assists than those above him in the table despite having played less minutes, with the exception of Dwight Gayle, than those above him . He has done really well defending from the front with a degree of skill and effort that our defence seems unable to muster. I think we would be in a much lower position now if we had not played him as much as we have and played Oliveira instead, however as I said on two previous occasions now I'm happy to agree to differ and move on.

 

I think Jerome could do a good job from left wing. He would get to defend, use his pace down the wing to get up and support Oliveira with those assists.

 

If Jerome is so good at defending from the front, why is it that we are so useless defensively? I think he runs around allot but isn't even very good defensively! That leaves us with a fast wasteful bugger who has ruined the rest of our attackers stats for assists!

More seriously, I think both Jerome and Nelson are good championship strikers, with differing strengths and weaknesses. I would be tempted to say that Nelson is slightly the better, but he really needs to stay fit enough and disaplined enough to prove it. If you could pick a player in our squad to be one on one with the keeper, I struggle to believe anyone would plump for Jerome over Nelson?

Bah!