Now that the fly-away races are over - with so many drivers out of contract for next year - I thought it would be interesting to have a place to discuss the evolution of the driver line-up towards 2017. The older drivers have a habit recently of hanging on to their seats; Raikonnen and Massa - in my opinion - are the keys to the driver market this year. In addition I think Renault's potential may lead to a driver who is currently “stuck” taking a chance on them and freeing up a seat in the leading non-works teams. Mercedes Rosberg - out of contract in 2016. Has wasted the seat really for the past two years, caving in when in mattered in 2014 and rolling over in 2015. This situation I think suits Merc and Hamilton and with him having a chance to win this year, I don't see Merc letting him go. Hamilton - Under contract for 2017, can't see him going anywhere. Ferrari Vettel - Under contract for 2017 - not going anywhere Raikonen - Now living year by year - Generally starts slowly and then responds to pressure around contract time, by picking up his pace and signing a new 1 year deal. Has started better this year, but you still feel that it's time for someone else to have a go. Getting on well with Vettel may give him another stay of execution. Redbull/Torro Rosso I've put these guys together because their futures are very much intertwined. Ricciardo - Seems like RB have some kind of option on him for next year - Has driven very well since coming in to F1 and kicked on a level once at the senior team. Really deserves to be in a better seat, but I expect him to stay next year with the possibility that new rules + an improving Renault engine will result in that seat being at Red Bull. Kvyat - probably has a long term/low cost deal, but that doesn't mean much - Probably promoted a year too early, but no real sign of increasing consistency yet. I think he's worth a seat, but I don't think it will be here - needs to do a Perez and find a less pressurised drive I think. Vestappen - probably has a long term/low cost deal- The man most likely to move up the grid, I expect into a RedBull, with a bumper new deal at Kvyat's expense. Sainz - probably has a long term/low cost deal - I expect him to stay for a third year at Torro Rosso, but not a fourth. McLaren Alonso - Under contract for 2017 - Despite the lack of car/engine performance I expect him to stay and see the project through. From here, he’s only getting a Championship car by working with a team to develop one – I wouldn’t be surprised to see him sign a new deal at McLaren Button - On a one year contract extension - Similarly to Alonso, he's experienced the pain and you'd expect him to want to hang around to try and get a few more race wins. May find himself under pressure from Stoffel Vandoorne, who would be considerably cheaper. To be honest if I was Ron, I'd be bringing in Vandoorne to get him some experience before Championships become a possibility (I'd hate myself for it though). Williams Massa - On a one year extension ending this year - Been around a long time and still driving at around the level of the car. No idea what's happening here. May be under threat of Mercedes wanting to place Wehrlein at a team higher up the grid. Bottas - On a one year extension ending this year - Has spoken a lot about wanting to move up the grid, but I can't say that his performances really merit that. Re-signing at Williams looks like his best bet right now, either that or gamble on Renault. Force India Perez – No idea of contract situation – Is driving relatively well and doesn’t seem to be under any more danger. Could see him going to Williams if a spot opens up for a similar seat with a little more money, or maybe taking a gamble on Renault. Hulkenberg – Under contract until 2017 – Will see this out I think. Haas Grosjean – Signed a one year deal to 2016, although it sounds like Haas have options on him for future years - Another driver worthy of a better seat. May have a chance at Ferrari if Raikonen leaves, otherwise back to Renault if they start to improve? If not I expect him to wait a little longer here. Gutierrez – On loan from Ferrari, but I don’t know how long his contract is with them – Not much to say here as I don’t really understand what Ferrari are doing here. Renault I’m expecting them to improve dramatically next year, now that the team has some investment. Magnussen – On a one year deal – Has started well and I’d expect him to seal an extension, even if they decide to bring in a better/more experienced driver. Palmer – On a one year deal I think – Very early days and it would be harsh to judge him too soon, but if Renault do improve, it seems logical to me they’d want to bring in some more experience, or even a lead driver. I could see Button, Grosjean, Kyvat, Bottas or maybe even Perez or Hulkenberg here next year. Sauber/Manor The “show me the money” seats, very hard to predict if the seats will even exist next year, let alone who will be in them. Wehrlein – on loan from Merc, where he has a long term deal – Has started well, if he has a good year I think Merc will try and place him in a better team with their engine. Haryanto - on a one year, pay as you go deal – Sounds like he’s running out of money already, can’t see him seeing the year out, let alone being around next season. Gone by summer and back for a one off for the Malaysian GP I think. Nasr - on a one year, pay as you go deal – Will be back next year as long as the dollars keep rolling in. Going ok, but could do with adding some consistency to give him a chance of spending his money higher up the grid (Force India or Haas maybe)? Ericsson - on a one year, pay as you go deal – Surely someone will outbid him eventually? On the outside looking in Stoffel Vandoorne – Contracted to McLaren for at least 2 more years – The momentum behind him is building and I’m sure he will be in F1 next year – with no-one wanting a Honda engine, that surely means he will take Button’s seat at McLaren. Pierre Gasly – Next in line in the RB driver programme, has tested a TR and will likely be in their second seat next year. Alex Lynn – If one (or both) of the Williams drivers leaves, he would have a chance of being promoted from the test team. Needs also to do well in GP2 this year. Someone rich – possibly whoever replaces Haryanto in a few races time.
I think Esteban Ocon has a chance at the Renault seat next season. He's getting some FP1 drives this season, he looks 'acceptably' promising, and he's French. 2016 in DTM rather than GP2 etc isn't great but then again, Wehrlein. Outsiders who come to mind, Mitch Evans, seems to have stalled a little of late but might get the chance still Oliver Rowland, A very outside chance but if he played his cards right he could sneak in Sergey Sirotkin is a driver with Sauber written all over him, and he just keeps on coming back I think Kimi's drive will depend on who Ferrari can find. If they could entice Verstappen then he'd be long long. It just depends who's available, arguably Grosjean would be ideal, fast but not enough to take points of Vettel. Massa probably has another year in him, and I can't see Williams being in a giving mood towards rookies, I'd love to see Lynn given a chance but I'm not certain how he'd do. Button and Alonso will probably want to stick around but I fear McLaren will dump Button to let Vandoorne in
Good post, many candidates but don't see it changing much unless a big name moves or retires first. Big names include Raikkonen, Massa and Button.
I would say Raikkonen is out of Ferrari and will be replaced by Perez or Bottas, I don't think they'll go for Verstappen yet. Wehrlein to FI as replacement for Perez or Hulkenburg, who'll drop down or out unless he starts performing. Verstappen will replace Kvyatt at RBR, I don't know what will happen to Kvyat, could follow Alguesuari out of F1 before he's the age Senna started at, could drop back to STR, replace whoever goes to Ferrari, or take one of the other seats lower down that become available. I don't think McLaren or Mercedes will change. I can't see Gutierez staying another season, as to the rest, that's about $$$
The language coming out of Red Bull today suggest Kyvat could be in real trouble for a seat this season. But Red Bull is Red Bull, they often like to vent publicly. Kyvat has held his own overall in reality, I don't think it would help anyone to have a mid season change.
Retaining Massa and Bottas would just be so Williams. Boring, predictable and unambitious. So that's happening. Not sure about Raikkonen. I thought Ferrari would be going after Ricciardo, but the way things are shaping up Ricciardo's better off staying put and he has a contract any way. Would Ferrari just pluck someone out of the midfield? Their last four hires have been Raikkonen, Alonso, Raikkonen and Vettel. Verstappen to Red Bull is a formality. Kvyat's finished. Gasly to Toro Rosso. Mercedes will be unchanged. They could have two world champions next season, and while there'd be a clear gap between the two like at Ferrari and McLaren, they'd market it as the exciting partnership it isn't. It's surely time for Vandoorne to replace Button. They'd be sacrificing his career if they gave Button an extension, and Vandoorne showed on debut that he's more than capable of holding his own. Hulkenberg needs to move to Porsche rather than spending another season rotting in the midfield. I think Perez is the better driver of the two now and would like to see him move up, Renault will probably be the best move for him. Would be harsh on Magnussen if he performs this year but I think the best line up for Renault would be Perez and Button. Would be nice to see Magnussen take Massa's seat in the circumstances but it won't happen.
Pretty much agree with AG, although Kvyat has fairly rich sponsors though I think, so I'd expect to see him somewhere on the grid. Hulk to WEC makes a lot of sense. Mclaren either need to give Vandoorne a seat, or guarantee him one elsewhere on the grid. When their McHonda project doesn't appear to be progressing at the rate they want it to, there's little point maintaining Button and Alonso for another season. I think if Mclaren drop Button though he'll retire, I don't see him taking on another firmly midfield drive.
mercedes Hamilton - will stay depending if he and the team can stick it. Rosberg - would be silly to leave. so many easy victories Ferrari Vettel - still in contract but another failed ferrari project in the making Grosjean - would be the perfect driver for this role. Kimi will retire Red Bull Ricciardo - in contract may have a decent 2017 Verstapen - promotion Williams - Massa to retire, not sure on Bottas as he is not cutting it. maybe all change Mclaren - Alonso to stay, Button to retire - The stoff to give the team some young blood Haas - Im not even sure Gutierrez will last this season. All change in 2017 Force India - perez to stay, not sure on hulk... in fact not sure on the team STR - Sainz may be given a 3rd chance? - some new red bull hot shot Manor - Wehrelein to be given another year in waiting - somebody with cash ut more speed than Hary Sauber-Alfa Romeo - Team rebranding. some young talent injected
Haha! I knew I forgot somebody. Ok Renault will keep Kmag. I think palmer will get replaced mid way through this year
http://www.skysports.com/f1/news/24180/10268260/jenson-button-very-nearly-joined-williams-in-2015 Primarily about this season but also indicates is still an option for next. If Kimi does go it wouldn't surprise me to see Button in that seat for a season or two - they came very close to signing him in his early McLaren years.
I thought the same thing the other day, Button would make an excellent no. 2 at ferrari, And Williams, Laughing Larry is test driver there, he could get the nod and we'll see his smiling face back in F1.
Button at Ferrari with Vettel would be interesting from the point of view that he would then have partnered all of the "supposed" top 3. Can't really see how it make sense for Ferrari to hire someone who can't outlast Vettel though?
I mean't also if he decided the Ferrari project wasn't going to deliver the results he wanted in the next couple of years.
Yeh me to, I just feel that we have been robbed of seeing a proper end to both his and Alonso's career. For me Lewis and Vettel have had it a little too easy.
I am happy Button gets to retire with a championship under is belt, it rewarded his clean and consistent driving style when he was at Brawn. But for Alonso, he had so much more to offer, three maybe four titles should have gone his way atleast.
I still think that both Button and Lewis were hindered by being team mates and either of them could have had another WDC if they had support driver. I agree on Alonso, right or wrong he should 4 x WDC.
