2017 Derby and Oaks

With 11 days to the Oaks and 12 days to the Derby it's time to consider these great races However the following comment from AOB should not surprise anyone on this forum.

O'Brien said: "It looks like Churchill will go for the Irish Guineas, and Lancaster Bomber (fourth at Newmarket) could go with him. I'd say it's very unlikely that Churchill will go for the Derby."

At this point it looks a weak Derby with no clear high-class stars in the mix with most of the trials being underwhelming. So who should be favourite for the Derby now?

 

Kieron Fallon seemed really keen on Best Solution but I couldn't fancy that one on pedigree.

 

Derby Runners and Form
Derby Oddschecker

Oaks Runners
Oaks Oddschecker

 

Derby. Difficult to know who is running. Some nicely bred newcomers but assume they won't turn up. At present I like
Dubai Thunder and Venice Beach

Oaks. I like Enable

 

Rhododendron for the Oaks, and Cracksman for the Derby.

Rhododendron would have won the Guinneas IMO had she had a clear run, and she has the pedigree to suit the oaks. So hard to look past her.

Cracksman looks by far the best bet in the Derby, he beat Permian despite running very green, and Permian has then gone out and won 2 trials including the Dante.

I would have liked to have seen him run again, just to shake off his inexperience, but I could understand them withdrawing him at York, I wouldn't have run him on the soft.

I just think he's the best Colt in what isn't looking a strong Derby on paper. The AOB team doesn't appear to be as strong as it normally is.

 

It was good to soft officially. From comments made you'd have thought cars were sliding around the car parks. Nothing like it: a shoe hardly made a dent in the surface. I'm worried horses can't handle slight changes in going. I'm worried about going on racecourses these days full stop.

Agree fully with your comments on the AOB team. The Lingfield Trial and Dante really showed them up.

 

Do you think Cracksman will run in the Derby Shergs? Of the Gosden lot I think I would prefer Weekender, Face The Facts and Great Sound

 

Almost every year, there are two types of Derby or Oaks:

• There is the race where there is a short-priced favourite that has won one of the trials impressively and expectation is that it will trot up at Epsom and be hailed as the next champion.
• There is the race where the betting is wide open because nothing has won a trial in an authoritative way so all the talk is of it being a mediocre or poor race, something that can only really be ascertained after the race has been run.

It is no surprise that Rhododendron is a short price for the Oaks as she was second in the 1000 Guineas and looks like a middle distance filly; however, she could do without the rough passage she had at Newmarket given the added unknown of the Epsom undulations.

The various Oaks trials produced several respectable performances, which is enough to make the favourite a bad bet for anyone that was not on ante post months ago. Enable created a favourable impression when defeating Alluringly in the Cheshire Oaks but both of them would need to find a few pounds as that form looks inferior to the 1000 Guineas, which is likely to be very well represented thanks to Hydrangea and Intricately as well as the favourite. Over in France, Sobetsu well outpointed Coronet in the Prix Saint-Alary, but will it be easy ground at Epsom? At HQ, Horseplay took care of Isabel De Urbina in the Pretty Polly and the step up in distance should not be a problem. Rain Goddess would also be taking a big step up in trip but she has not placed in three runs for Ballydoyle and would need to find massive improvement. I do not expect Winter to even show up as I think they will keep her to a mile.

I am not surprised that Churchill is likely to be stood in his Ballydoyle box on 3rd June, so Coolmore will be multiply represented by Cliffs Of Moher, Yucatan, Capri, Douglas Macarthur, Orderofthegarter, Sir John Lavery and Venice Beach who all contested Derby trials, some of which produced muddling results. Jockey bookings in the week before the race are likely to shape the market. Cracksman has not run since winning the Epsom Derby Trial, but the horse that he just pipped that day, Permian, has won twice since – including the Dante in Cracksman’s absence – and will presumably be supplemented. It is hard to see Mirage Dancer reversing Chester form with Cliffs Of Moher.

I am not entirely convinced that Epsom will be Eminent’s cup of tea and the extra half mile could stretch the 2000 Guineas fifth.

As far as a Derby bet is concerned, I do like Lingfield Derby Trial winner Best Solution, who may not have beaten a very good field but has proven that he stays and won on the track that is most similar to Epsom. It is hard to see the favourite that day, Sir John Lavery, turning around sixteen lengths and I think Saeed bin Suroor’s colt will be the Godolphin number one on June 3rd ahead of Benbatl.

 

If we are going by his pedigree then admittedly you could have a few doubts about his ability to stay, but I think watching a horse race is a far bigger indicator than pedigree.

His last win over 10 furlongs he was doing his best work at the finish, and from what I seen I wouldn't have to many concerns about him getting further. The one worry would be him pulling to hard early on, as these Frankel horses seem to be very head strong. He has looked that way on both his starts so far to.

 

I edited my post Shergs. It will be interesting to see what Gosden runs.

 

Fact the Facts and Weekender I don't think will be up to Derby, or group standard for that matter. They've only won low grade maidens, and they weren't that impressive IMO. We will see though.

Great Sound I've not even heard of, I must have missed him, there is far to much racing to keep up with these days.

 

If you have seen them and not impressed that's good enough for me. I was just looking at pedigrees. Great Sound hasn't run yet so unlikely to turn up

 

Great Sound is probably one of those big backwards types then

Il keep an eye out for him later in the year.

 

In the Oaks I dont mind letting Rhododendron win at 13/8. Happy with my bet on Horseplay at 33s but I think she is probably running for 3rd place only. Will be backing Enable closer to the time.

The Derby is more of a sore head for me, the form suggests its close between the main players and I think the right two are at the top of the betting despite neither having looked really top drawer so far. I like the unknowns in the race this year because none of the knowns are particularly inspiring. Two horses I think have not been able to show themselves yet are Cracksman and Mirage Dancer, both only had their second runs this season and im backing both.

Cracksman might have won the Dante easily and been 7/4 just now for all we know, his form already gives him a chance and you would expect him to improve on that. Obviously Permian has improved since that race at Epsom and Cracksman didnt look great on the track so you cant get too carried away but I think its quite safe to assume he will have improved plenty himself and I think he will stay.

Mirage Dancer had no chance at Chester, terrible position in a tactical race and nowhere to go at a vital stage, caught many eyes running well in the straight and wasnt beat far at the end. When the camera went to them pulling up he had run past Cliffs Of Moher who had the run of the race, confirming the impression that he finished with something in the tank. Hard to be sure that hes good enough but hes my favourite 3yo, loved his maiden win and I need to back him.

 

Best to wait a bit and see who's actually running in the Derby, and who isn't? There are certainly a lot of question marks with some of the fancied runners on their ability to stay the distance. At the moment I do like Dubai Thunder. Godolphin reckon he "stays 1-1/4 miles". I think he should get 1-1/2 miles with ease the way he won at Newbury on his debut? The damsire, Lando, would suggest he really should get the Derby distance, and if it's good ground, the Lando influence makes it even more interesting? Just a matter of whether Dubai Thunder is good enough!

(20-1 with Willie Hill is awfully tempting for me atm; wish Godolphin would tell me a bit more! ).

 

I think Joe is underestimating Horseplay's chance. She was highly tried on her first start as a 2yo and that said something to me. She then won her maiden like a good 'un. Having won the Pretty Polly she apparently she ran a cracking trial at Epsom today. Everyone seems to expect Rhododendron to stay 12f, but that is highly leveraged on the two parents. and little else. Obviously Galileo will get 12f horses but the dam's dam is a very fast horse called Cassandra Go, who won the Kings Stand and was 2nd in the July Cup. If she has any influence on Rhododendron then the favourite may be emptying in the last two furlongs. Horseplay has her problems in that the dam stayed. But she has proved she has speed as well. Has she enough?

The Derby picture reminds me of years like '73 and '74 when people were hunting around for any bits of form and latching onto maiden winners. In '73 that was the right thing to do as a once raced Lingfield maiden winner triumphed in the Derby, but it can be so easy to get carried away. The Lingfield Trial winner is interesting to me as I've been a great advocate for the sire Kodiac. He was a sprinter but his pedigree doesn't put you off him siring stayers. By Danehill (the sire of Derby and Arc etc. etc. winners) out of a mare who won the Prix de Diane and has plenty of family members who stayed 12f, he could easily sire stayers himself. The female side of Best Soluton has even more stamina as this is the family of a St Leger winner and a Derby winner. He has a classy pedigree and don't be put off by Kodiac: in the next few years he will have more horses like Best Solution.

I don't want to waste my finger on going into the pedigrees of horses now as I'd rather wait until we know what the field is. The view is that it will be 16 or so runners and some of them will be no-hopers. But I will say a few words on Cracksman. By Frankel, we have to say he should stay 10f at least. The distaff side is interesting as it's the same family as Golden Horn. They both have the same 4th dam: a filly called Lora. Cracksman's 3rd dam is the best of Lora's foals On the House (who won the 1000G). Comparing Golden Horn and Cracksman I feel I'd be more certain Golden Horn would stay 12f, which he did. But I'm not so certain Cracksman will stay 12f as well. For Cracksman you take Pivotal, Green Desert and Be My Guest as the 3 sires in the bottom half. This compares with Dubai Destination, Nureyev and Habitat. Not much in it, but in my mind the latter 3 (especially Dubai Destination over Pivotal, and even Nureyev over Green Desert) gives me more confidence of stamina.

But more later.

 

Hopefully I am underestimating her Bustino, I just think she made hard enough work of the race at Newmarket and she has a bit to find with the top 2 on form based on that run, it wasnt a Taghrooda level performance when she won the same race before winning the Oaks. Enable showed more gears at Chester imo and obviously stays well so I dont think Horseplay can win on stamina alone.

I agree about the favourite, im not certain she will stay, certainly dont think she is a 1m4 filly anyway but her class could tell if she just about gets it.

 

Dubawi Thunder is a horse that strikes close to my heart. His great grand-dam was a filly called Grimpola, whom Leslie Harrison purchased for Lord Howard de Walden in the mid-80s. He was the 2nd German mare purchased by LH for LHdeW and thie first was Sayonara who presented the Earl with his Derby winner Slip Anchor. His idea was to introduce solid but unflashy German blood in order to breed to Mill Reef and his sons. The reason being that many experts felt Mill Reef was such a fine, beautiful specimen that he needed partners who were a bit tougher.

Once Slip Anchor was standing at de Walden's Plantation Stud he wanted another German mare and Grimpola was the result. She wasn't an outstanding success for de Walden but her influence only skipped a generation. Grimpola's most important daughter (so far) was Gryada (by Mill Reef's son Shirley Heights) who won a couple of races and got some black type when placed in a G3. She had 3 produce (so far) of importance. The first to mention is Fame and Glory (by Montjeu) who was probably the 2nd best staying 3yo in 2009 and the best home staying 4yo in 2010. The second is Yummy Mummy (by M ontjeu) who became the dam of Legatissimo. The third is a mare called Guaranda who was the result of sending Gryada back to another German sire Acatanango. She is the dam of Gravitation (by Galileo) who is still owned by Lady Howard de Walden and has produced those good horses Gibeon and Gemina (excuse me my prejudices).

Dubai Thunder is the result of sending Grimpola to Slip Anchor, where the produce was a filly called Gonfalon. Unraced, she was sold as a 3yo for a paltry 11,500gns to a German stud. Her daughter Gonbarda (by Lando a son of Acetanango: so they knew the cross worked) was sold to Godolphin after winning two German Group 1s. A good purchase by Godolphin as she presented them with Farhh and now Dubai Thunder.

Certain to stay the Derby trip. Will he be fast enough?.

What I think is a shame is that Godolphin pay no attention to the naming of these horses. This is the German G family, whereas Slip Anchor was from the German S family. Why can't they keep to tradition?

 

The 'so far' refers to the possibility that another daughter of Gryada may throw up a useful line. It does not mean she could have produce in the future and she did have more than 3.

 

Well, that is all very encouraging!