Over season form target: 73 points.. Over last 10 games form target: 15/10*11 = call it 15 more points.+ 52 = 67 points Over last 5 games form target: 7/5*11 = 15 more +52 = 67 points. So nows the time. Things must change for the better or LFC won't get 4th. this block is 6/12 with one game coming (burnley) our remaining games are: 12th March Burnley H cannot play away. should be very close to safe 18th March Man City A top 4 rival 1st April Everton H Can;t play at anfield. Dunno what it is but they are jinxed. 5th April Bournemouth H Bournmeouth will need at least apooint and will be getting desperate 8th April Stoke A On hols 16th April WBA A On hols 22nd April Crystal Palace H - will be desperate and will park bus. 29th April Watford A On hols 6th May Southampton H on hols 13th May West ham A On hols 21st May Middlesboro H will either be already relegated or absolutely desperate Honeslty that run in is very very favorable. There are only 3 sides in relegation trouble in the run and only one top 4 rival left. If we only take 15 points (5 wins after all) I for one would be selling the whole squad as these should be games that a team wanting points should win cos frankly 6 sides should not be too bothered and should be thinking of their summer holidays. Thats 18 points right there and 70 points. the other 5 games are what will get us top 4 or not. If we bascailly don't bother ourselves we will fail. What we are righting is a) arsenal end of era b) utd fighting for cups but can go on run easy If we get beat in a straight up dog fight for 4th fine but if we just bottle it it'll be tragic
So if we can get a positive result out of the next two games then we are looking at 5 teams who will be total on hols. If we cannot get 70 points now after getting to 55 with 10 to go it will be a massive flop given the bottom 3 are on 24/25 points with 10 to go I think the 37-38 point mark seems like safety Bournemouth have hit 30 points. I would hope they don't turn us over not at home.
you can see where the battle was lost starkly in this chart but right now... we can get 75 points Our season long form = 75 points Our last 10 form = 70 points (includes disastrous January) Our last 5 form = 73 points. Lets be clear. Its going to be very tight for 4th. All 5 teams for 2nd to 6th can get well past 70 if they play anyway decently. I would set a tentative target of 75 points for 4th as a result. Deffo a unique season with 6 going for 4 slots.
That is why the stats/charts are so unreliable. Do you go with the last 10 matches, last 5 matches or last 2 matches to predict the final points total? They all give hugely different figures and outcomes. You have to look at other issues. Manager change or staying? Injuries? Suspensions? European involvement? 2 matches a week? Leicester again bucks the trend. If you look at their last 10 matches they are in relegation trouble but if the last 2-3 matches, they are top 8. For me, if we beat City, we must be favourites to finish top 4. Confidence and momentum.
Sky have actually predicted we finish 4th on 73 points with utd 5th on 70 just saying..... form over the season rarely changes. all i'm saying is we had a bad dip in there and if we continue in the vien of the last 5 games we can get 4th. as do the sky boffins..
The general form guide seems to be 10 games in which case it's Won 3 Draw 2 Lost 5 Where does that leave you?