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Off Topic Politics Thread

Discussion in 'Southampton' started by ChilcoSaint, Feb 23, 2016.

  1. ImpSaint

    ImpSaint Well-Known Member

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    Where did I say that. You like to take what someone says and spin it. There are multitudes of reasons PFI being one of them. I am merely pointing out that people in this thread jump on headlines and then all agree with each other.

    Tories have been talking to a US private healthcare firm = Tories are privatising the NHS. Never mind that this partnership goes back to the Labour government in the early noughties and there are all sorts of partnerships like this where governments work with the private sector to "try" and improve the state sector.

    And here we have borrowing by the Tories outweighs Labour without ever looking into the detail that inflation means that we quite likely need to borrow in 6 months what we would have borrowed in a whole 5 year parliament from the 70s because of inflation. Add to that there are several roll on factors like PFI from the past government that we are still paying for as well as the fact that we have been in stagnation for nearly a decade and we are comparing it to a period where Labour were in power in one of the biggest booms ever yet still borrowed loads while also loading up future debt on buy now pay later PFI deals.

    You all seem to want the answer to be 5 and when you see someone say it is 5 you do not question it.

    The one about Osborne's austerity holding our growth back is laughable. We grew faster than most of the western world in that period and while the EU was stagnant. How did he hold our growth back or are we looking at false growth like the housing bubble that Blair utilised?

    How would we grow faster when the world (and apparently our biggest market the EU) was struggling against deflation and negative growth? To grow you need people to buy your products and when the EU took so long to come out of recession who is buying? Germany was still at zero growth while we were "being held back with low growth"

    People seem to have forgotten that in 2015 and 2016 it was being suggested that we could overtake Germany and Japan!!! We have outperformed Germany for the past 5 years!!

    We still have higher growth than Germany.

    Does the Beeb and Guardian not tell people this? Or do they put out misinformation and say Osborne held us back (despite no customers) and people believe it because they want to?

    Do people not remember when the IMF criticised Osborne for not doing real austerity like the EU? Do they not remember when the IMF finally admitted that they had been wrong because they couldn;t argue with the growth figures? Do they not remember the IMF at the same time gave a caveat of "BUT" when again they were wrong because we are still ahead of Germany this year in growth?

    The forecasts still have Germany projected to finally grow faster than us from next year but like Liverpool FC these forecasts of doom have continually said "next year." Our growth projections for next year are really low like they have been for the past few yet the actuals have always ended up being higher and the projections keep having to be amended to project the doom somewhere along the line. When that happens they will say "See we said this would happen." Of course it they will eventually be right but then if you keep predicting growth will slow down then eventually you will be right.

    I'm not Osborne's biggest fan and glad he is out but you can;t blame him for the lack of growth when we were performing better than virtually all of our competitors in that period.
     
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    Last edited: Apr 28, 2017
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  2. ImpSaint

    ImpSaint Well-Known Member

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    Growth rates since 2008:

    Year UK Germany
    2008 -0.6 0.8
    2009 -4.3 -5.6
    2010 1.9 4.0
    2011 1.5 3.7
    2012 1.3 0.7
    2013 1.9 0.6
    2014 3.1 1.6
    2015 2.2 1.5
    2016 1.8 1.7

    So seeing as it seems the party in power is the one to blame or praise we can see that it must mean the Tories played a blinder in 2010 immediately returning us to growth. No other factors to consider here.

    The real story is just how did Osborne hold us back? We were part of the EU yet outperformed it's "powerhouse" in every single year from 2012 to 2016 by a large margin. All this time the EU/IMF and Germany in particular were blasting Osborne for not adopting heavy austerity and forecasting doom. The reality is that Osborne's austerity was pretty minimal compared to what they EU wanted and the UK actually benefitted from that approach.

    YEs you can say you should spend you way out of a recession but that does not help you if you have no customers because everyone else is stagnant.
     
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  3. Archers Road

    Archers Road Urban Spaceman

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    I don't think your analyses stands up to scrutiny Imps.

    Following the crash of 2008, UK GDP growth rate climbed steadily until 2010, at which point it began to fall, which it continued to do until mid 2012. Since when it has been anaemic at best. It's certainly not in a good place now. I see no evidence of a blinder being played, in fact far from it.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/ihyr/pgdp

    Two further factors; current data will not have been impacted by the triggering of Article 50 last month. And the full effect of Osbourne's apocalyptic cuts in Central to Local Govt grants are only just beginning to feed through. The full effect of the crisis in adult social care, library closures,
    swimming pool closures etc, are really just beginning, as Local Authorities find themselves unable to pay for even the most basic projects and facilities.
     
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  4. ImpSaint

    ImpSaint Well-Known Member

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    Ah so the effects of Osborne's policies are down to Osborne and the effect of Brown/Blair's policies are down to Osborne as well.

    Are you disputing the figures above? The page you linked to loads up like an 80s unravelled html script and seems to be all quarters and not annual.
     
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  5. Onionman

    Onionman Well-Known Member

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  6. Archers Road

    Archers Road Urban Spaceman

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    You can use the tools in the link to select the periods you want to focus on. I was looking at the last 10 years GDP figures, but when loading the link the graph reverts to 1956-2017. Use the buttons beneath it, it's a pretty flexible tool.

    I am not questioning your figures, I am questioning your interpretation of them. The ONS graph I linked to, especially if you select data for the last 10 years, clearly indicates my point about George Osbourne choking off the nascent recovery through his austerity budget(s).
     
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  7. ImpSaint

    ImpSaint Well-Known Member

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    That graph marries my figures (now it has actually loaded up) so it backs me up when I say that we have outperformed Germany since 2012. Even last year we were 1.8, they were 1.7. This year the ONS and IMF have continued their trend of predicting much lower growth than we actually see. They initially went for 1.4 and revised it up to 2.0% . They have done this for a long time now and sure as can be while they revised this year upward they then went and revised the forecasts for the next few years downward. And it will be no surprise to anyone (apart from the ONS and IMF) if growth exceeds their new revised down forecasts:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39204884

    You are talking about the UK growth figures in isolation as being weak or flatlining without taking into account that they are better than Germany, better than France and way better than Switzerland. The US only had 1.6% growth last year so we were higher than them as well. Japan is way way behind with their 0.5% and much worse growth through the past few years.

    So we are holding our own in a period where the whole of the western world is struggling growthwise yet you want to pin it on Osborne and the Tories holding us back. Every year we do better than the IMF or ONS wanted to predict we would do yet Osborne held us back?

    In the world growth tables for last year we are quite well down but then Iraq and Myanmar are 1st and 2nd position in the growth list for 216.

    Western democracies growth rankings:
    34 - Ireland 4.9%
    63 - Sweden 3.6%
    67 - Luxembourg 3.5% (how much of that should actually be other countries growth?)
    124 - UK 1.8%
    128 - Germany 1.7%
    133 - Netherlands 1.7%
    134 - USA 1.6%
    142 - Belgium 1.4%
    145 - France 1.3%
    153 - Switzerland 1.0%
    156 - Norway 0.8%
    159 - Japan 0.5%

    https://knoema.com/atlas/ranks/Real-GDP-growth?baseRegion/ir

    I don't know how anyone can say that Osborne held us back when we have seen good growth compared to others in Europe for all but the first 2 years of the coalition, while all the other countries especially in the EU have struggled to get their growth moving, only now starting to catch us up. We recovered from the crash at a really good speed but then if your customers start to struggle then growth is going to slow down. Can;t sell stuff to Germany or France or Greece if they aren't buying.

    Like I say they are no doubt forecast to be way ahead of us in 2018. The ONS/IMF either intentionally forecast low to suit a narrative or they are just not very good at forecasting. But then they are experts after all so not to be taken too seriously ;)


    By the way this year as stated above the UKs 2017 forecast has been revised up to 2.0. Germany have revised their 2017 forecast from 1.4 up to 1.5% and they have revised 2018 to 1.6%

    So that means we are forecast to be higher than Germany this year and the same next year. With the ONS record that means we'll be higher than Germany next year too then ;)
     
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  8. SaintinSerbia

    SaintinSerbia Annoying Twat

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    Between 1970 and 1974 I grew from 5ft 7 to 6ft 4 under Ted Heath's Conservative government. (but I believe that growth spurt was a result of Harold Wilson's devaluation of the Pound in 1967)
     
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  9. SaintinSerbia

    SaintinSerbia Annoying Twat

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  10. Archers Road

    Archers Road Urban Spaceman

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    So you think our economy is doing well? Certainly doesn't feel like it. Unless of course you own considerable assets, in which case your personal wealth will have been growing exponentially for the last decade. That doesn't help everyone though, and it certainly won't help the majority of under 30s unless they stand to inherit, in which case good luck to them waiting for us old 'uns (the ones who, by cruel irony, voted for Brexit) to die off.

    Look, I'm not trying to say the state of the UK's economy is all George Osbourne's fault, and I don't really think you believe it's all Tony Blair's fault. I am, however, happy to argue that the Tory's reputation for economic competence is not borne out by the facts.

    Furthermore, the fallacy that Labour gets into power, overspends, and leaves the Tories to clear up the mess, is exactly that; a fallacy. As is the belief that the correct response to a prolonged recession is to cut back on public spending; in fact cutting public spending during a recession is arguably the worst thing you can possibly do.
     
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  11. BobbyD

    BobbyD President

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    Whilst theres not always black and white. You are advocating spending when there is a recession which we can blame the tories for.

    However should we not have been saving when there was a massive boom going on rather than spending more (you can't just keep on spending). For that we can blame Labour surely?
     
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  12. Archers Road

    Archers Road Urban Spaceman

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    Yeah, point taken. We can also, in hindsight, blame Labour for not regulating the UK banking sector robustly enough during the boom years (because whilst the rot started in the US Mortgage market, more could have been done to protect UK banks from contagion).

    On balance though, I think the last Labour government's economic record, while far from perfect, stands up to scrutiny. I believe that history will be kind to chancellor Gordon Brown, but not to George Osbourne. But we might have to wait 50 years for history's verdict.
     
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  13. Saints_Alive

    Saints_Alive Well-Known Member

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    The economy is a bit of a smokescreen, recessions come and go and are usually caused by global markets not individual governments. What matters to me is people's standard of living and being marginalised to the edges of society (is there a society anymore since Thatcherism?). There is no doubt that the people that are adversely affected by the austerity measures are the ones that can least afford it, they are being driven by ideology and not for the greater good of the country's population I believe.

    Edit: And if you don't believe that there is real poverty, just walk through Southampton City Centre any morning and you will see several desperate souls sleeping rough, I don't recall that a decade ago and we are supposedly in the affluent South.
     
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  14. Beef

    Beef Well-Known Member

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  15. Onionman

    Onionman Well-Known Member

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    In the manner of politicians and projecting that growth rate forward, I assume you're now 14ft 5in tall?*

    Vin




    *Mathematically accurate. I really am that sad.
     
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  16. SaintinSerbia

    SaintinSerbia Annoying Twat

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    Due to the power cuts, Thatcher becoming leader of the Conservative party and the rise of Punk Rock I only managed another inch!
     
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  17. Archers Road

    Archers Road Urban Spaceman

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    I notice that Portsmouth and Brighton are part of the Republic of London.
     
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  18. SaintinSerbia

    SaintinSerbia Annoying Twat

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    and the Isle of Wight is cast adrift!
     
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  19. tiggermaster

    tiggermaster Well-Known Member

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    May be I'm simplistic, but the arguments quite well articulated on both sides of the economic debate on this thread do not address the issues that preoccupy my thinking. I have 4 grand kids under 7, whom I'm love dearly. I would like to think that their futures were as optimistically framed as I could make them. It seems to me that it is paramount they have enough to eat, good air to breath and that some stupid bastard doesn't drop bombs of any sort on them. It seems to me that the way we are headed is towards such eventualities.. not enough food, mass pollution and trigger happy narcissistic psychopaths in power only too ready to play war games.

    The socialist systems in the world seem doomed to failure and capitalist systems fail to address fundamental issues of equality. Jamaica and Cuba are next door to one another and in many ways provide quite extreme examples of the 2 systems. There are undoubtedly, percentage wise, more rich and more very poor people in Jamaica; you live longer in Cuba, but you have to toe the line. In Cuba the state keeps you in line. In Jamaica poverty keeps you in line. So the evidence suggests we need to think outside the box.

    How do we ensure there is enough food for our grand kids, that they can breath air that won't kill them and have leaders who are not trigger happy? I would argue certainly not by opting out. That seems to me to the crux of the Brexit debate. It also seems to me it should be the crux of the coming general election debate. What does it really mean for our grand kids to be part of, or separate from the rest of the continent that has been responsible for the last 2 world wars? How can it be better to pursue academic issues both in the sciences and the arts alone that could provide the answers to the 3 basic issues I've raised? Instead we have the same old bollox of who's fault it was historically, allied to scaremongering each other's future 'visions' You would hope that a mature democracy would discuss these issues maturely but no, knock about politics from knock about politicians, covered by a media that likes to whip up a frenzy rather than promote mature debate. I fear for my grand kids and it just makes me sad. Still, Saints might win tomorrow and the world will look better for a few hours...
     
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  20. greensaint

    greensaint Well-Known Member

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    Listening to all the four major parties with increasing despair during the last couple of weeks I can finally understand the attraction of a benign dictator.

    It also indicates the level of dissatisfaction many feel about current politicians and system while seemingly willing to accept it.
     
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